Category: Regional Economy

Recovery Gaining Steam for the Pittsburgh Construction Market

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I had the need to meet up with a customer during the lunch hour last Friday in the Strip District for a brief exchange of materials. The new Terminal Building was a convenient place to meet since it is about halfway between our two offices. The inconvenient part was the usual Strip District stuff: people all over the place, no place to park, impatient drivers on Smallman Street creating their own lanes where none exist. Except that those were the typical inconveniences of the Strip in June 2019, not of the past 15 months. The “business as usual” irritations of a busy streetscape were but another reminder that the economy is bouncing back better and faster than expected. The difference in the marketplace from December 2020 to March 2021 was night and day, and the same can be said of the difference between March and June. Bid boards are full. Backlogs have swelled. Firms are unable to find project managers, project architects, engineers, estimators, etc. Here are a few signposts:

  • Contracting volume for the first six months should be around $2.4 billion, compared to $1.8 billion during the first half of 2020.
  • The final report of U.S. GDP growth remained at 6.4% for the first quarter. Economists expect the full year expansion to be even higher.
  • There were 3 new cases of COVID-19 recorded in Allegheny County June 28. The 7-day average is 13.
  • Hotel occupancy reached 66% in the U.S. for the week ending June 12, the highest since Nov. 2019.
  • Apartment rents in Pittsburgh rose 2% last month and were 4.8% higher than in March 2020 before the pandemic hit.

Obviously, any number of factors can still slow the progress being made. Inflation looks to be easing, especially as home construction slows because of higher prices, but construction costs are still high. That could keep projects from starting. Construction labor is running short, which would cool expansion. Infections could rise again, especially if the Delta variant spreads quickly through unvaccinated people with relaxed virus mitigation. Economic activity outside the U.S. is sluggish, which could limit growth opportunities for global U.S. companies (and we have a few of those in Pittsburgh). The odds are, however, most of the potential hurdles for economic growth will not present themselves. The next 60 days should provide a good vision into where the market is heading. If bidding remains active, bid lists will become shorter as the summer ends, as contractors line up work that stretches capacity. It’s possible that anxiety left over from 2020 will fuel contractors to keep building backlog beyond their capacity, but few firms are struggling financially and that should mean prudence not risk-taking.

Friday afternoon, 20th & Smallman Street.

Braddock Library selected Jendoco Construction as contractor for its $13 million renovation. Mascaro Construction was awarded the $124 million steel structure and concrete decks package for the Pittsburgh International Airport’s Terminal Modernization. The big building envelope package for the TMP was recently advertised. Peak Construction started work on Scannell Properties’ $25 million West Hills Commerce Park in Findlay Township. NextGen Construction held a pre-bid for the $1.3 million Big Tom’s Barber Shop in the Hill District. Walter Mucci Construction was awarded the $44.2 million Paynter Elementary School in Baldwin. ICON is bringing its proposed Smithfield Redevelopment, an $8-10 million re-use of 635-641 Smithfield Street into 40 apartments and retail, to the Pittsburgh Downtown Partnership for review. Hampton Township School District advertised its $36 million high school project for bids July 22.

Note: The blog post written earlier this week identified the PIT Terminal Modernization Program package awarded to Mascaro Construction as stee/foundations in error. the foundations package bid on June 30. The three lowest bids were: Mascaro Construction $39,105,000; Burchick Construction $39,585,000; Mosites Construction $43,048,472.

Be Careful with the Data: February Was Not That Slow

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On Friday, the Pittsburgh Business Times ran an article on construction activity in February that quoted Dodge Data & Analytics’ report that a mere $36 million in construction started in that month, The lede was that construction declined 88% year-over-year. (In the interest of full disclosure, I worked for what was formerly the F. W. Dodge Division of McGraw-Hill for 14 years at the beginning of my career.) Given the increased level of activity in the construction market since February 1, this headline and data seemed out of step with reality. I did a few minutes research and found that February was indeed down significantly compared to the same month in 2020, but the conclusion of the article was misleading. That’s not the Business Times’ fault. They are relying on data that is very inaccurate.

The construction market in Pittsburgh is rapidly picking up steam as spring begins. That’s a great indicator for 9-12 months out. The optimism and activity are better than what would have been unexpected just 90 days ago; however, the improved prospects for recovery will do little to improve the prospects for 2021. This year is going to be tougher financially than 2020 because the extreme slowdown in the second and third quarters of last year will be echoed in the first half of 2021. Construction businesses need data to manage 2021 so that they can be best positioned to take advantage of what should be a booming 2022. And bad data is worse than no data.

So here’s the data Tall Timber has from its research of building permits, construction reports, architects, owners, and contractors in the region:

Starts ($M) Variance
February 2020 $370.1
February 2021 $185.5 -49.9%
March 2020 $237.9
March 2021 $354.3 ** 48.9%

** Actual through March 26

The data in February 2020 was a good indication of the health of the market. Projects that were permitted or awarded that month included the $80 million Arsenal 201 apartments, a $5 million Behavioral Health Unit at Ohio Valley General Hospital, $25 million shell building for Krystal Biotech in Findlay Township, The $20 million airport micro-grid, $10 million Kraft Heinz research kitchen renovation, $12 million Heinz Field expansion for the Steelers Pro Shop, and a $16 million slag processing facility at Allegheny Ludlum’s Brackenridge facility. It was cross section of the economy. Of course, that was all about to change. The impact of the pandemic showed up almost immediately, as starts in March (typically a much busier month than February) fell off by 35.7%.

That March decline makes sense now, but at the time, such an immediate slowdown would have seemed unlikely. Bear in mind that our methodology for construction starts seeks to identify when work starts or is about to start. We are not tracking construction put in place, so the mandated shutdowns that followed the outbreak should not have influenced March’s start data. The preconstruction process is lengthy and I would have expected that starts would remain higher for a few months when a downturn began. Such was the jarring nature of COVID-19’s impact on the economy that projects were stopped in their tracks, even if they had already bid. Seeing that data by mid-April 2020 informed me that work was going to decline precipitously in 2020. At that point in time, my forecast for 2020 was for 30% lower start volume; but, as it worked out, the market held up better, falling “only” 17% year-over-year.

On the other side of the coin, the optimism that began to build when vaccines were announced in December 2020 has taken a few months to translate into construction starts. Like in February 2020, the work started over the past 30 days represents what the post-COVID economy may present: $60 million in new industrial properties, including Suncap’s and Northpointe’s developments of over 200,000 square feet; a handful of emerging tech fitouts, including multi-million expansions by Intervala at RIDC Westmoreland and Google at Bakery Square.

Construction companies feel good when their bid boards are full but analysis isn’t about feelings; it’s about data. Bidding is a predictor of activity to come. This coming year will see economic growth that comes in fits and starts. It is easier for executives to make decisions about opportunities if they are able to see February’s activity accurately measured, and the expected gains in March follow suit. Put in the context of the conclusions drawn by the author of the Business Times article, contractors that believe the market is slow because their activity is slow can make incorrect decisions about what and how to bid. The value of accurate data is that you can judge how you are doing against the market, rather than your own observations. To wit, if your company worked primarily in the office market, you might think there were few construction opportunities available in March, but there were plenty, just not in the office market.

I’m not familiar with Dodge’s methodology anymore, other than the fact that they don’t employ local reporters as they once did. Perhaps there will be a revision issued in April that shows the February data was higher or a much higher March that shows that the February data was just a timing issue. Regardless of whether the grossly understated February report changes, be careful about the data you use to measure the market in 2021. It will be a volatile and potentially active year. We already know that pricing is out of kilter, which could create a halting recovery from 2020’s malaise. Perhaps you are going to put your head down and hustle your way through 2021, but if you are the type of businessperson who wants to understand what the market is doing, be careful of the data you use. If it seems like the information isn’t matching your reality, look closer. This is not a year you want to miss the market.

Clearing the Air on Pittsburgh Pollution

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In January 2020, a Google engineer named Dennis Towne wrote an editorial for Public Source in which he cited Pittsburgh’s air pollution as the reason he was leaving the region. Towne also urged other Google co-workers not to move here. He had a number of health complaints that he tied to the poor air quality in Southwestern PA. The editorial was a black eye for Pittsburgh, especially since mandated air quality tests (done in Clairton) continued to show that Allegheny County’s air was failing to meet the standards of federal legislation. For a region struggling to attract people and businesses – and to shed its Smoky City misperception – Towne’s public departure was another hurdle to overcome.

Earlier this month a study released by Pittsburgh Works Together showed that while Townes health may have suffered while living in Pittsburgh, it wasn’t going to get any better if he relocated to many U.S. cities. The study, called Clearing the Air, is an analysis of years of EPA data and environmental studies. Clearing the Air concludes that Pittsburgh’s air quality deserves a C+ grade, one that has much room for improvement. The study also found that Pittsburgh’s air quality is better than half the cities in the country, including Seattle, WA, San Francisco, CA, and San Jose, CA (home to Google). Based upon the 2019 EPA data, only five of the top 50 cities in the U.S. had lower ozone levels than Pittsburgh. The levels of particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometers (or PM2.5, an EPA measure of pollution) in Pittsburgh are lower than 18 of the top 50 metros. Only eight cities had lower levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2). On the other hand, only Detroit had worse levels of sulfur dioxide than Pittsburgh. But Pittsburgh ranked near the top in the rate of decline in pollution on almost all pollutants. Clearing the Air also examines the reports done by the region’s biggest air quality critics, the American Lung Association and the Breathe Project, and puts the claims those critics make into context.

The conclusions drawn by Clearing the Air don’t suggest that Pittsburgh’s air quality is great, but that it’s a C+ not an F. Editorials like that of Dennis Townes perpetuate the Smoky City image and clearly Townes gives Pittsburgh an F. That’s his prerogative. No one should live in a place that makes them unhealthy. What Pittsburgh Works Together asserts is that the air quality in Pittsburgh is about what you should expect in a major metropolitan area. Pittsburgh Works describes itself as a non-partisan coalition of labor, industry, and civic leaders. Note that environmental leaders are not part of that coalition. Without the environmental activism the improvements to Pittsburgh’s air quality might not be as pronounced. Certainly, the air quality here was improved most dramatically by the shutdown of the region’s steel mills and other heavy manufacturing plants. But those shutdowns damaged the region’s economy and quality of life for a generation. Those are tough tradeoffs to make. I think that’s the point Pittsburgh Works is trying to make. We like to believe here in Pittsburgh that you don’t need to trade a healthy environment for a healthy economy. The past 30 years have proven that to some degree; however, 2.5 million people live in metro Pittsburgh, 60% of those in Allegheny County. That many people engaged in economic and recreational activity in one county are going to cause air pollution. And that is a tradeoff that you may have to accept for living in a large, vibrant area, regardless of where in the U.S. that area is located.

I hope Mr. Townes is no longer feeling sick. But, if he returned to the Bay Area, the EPA data says that it’s not cleaner air that is improving his health.

Construction is getting off the ground slowly in 2021. The $45 million Fayette County Prison is out to bid. Mistick Construction is taking bids on its $15 million Cal-Bride Apartment/Townhouse development. Waller Corp. was awarded the contract for the $2 million renovation to Carrnegie Library for Blind and Phisically Handicapped. PW Campbell has started work on a $4 million renovation of the former Goodwill Warehouse on the South Side.

Pittsburgh’s Construction Year in Review: 2020

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Construction and development were on a roll coming into 2020. While the economy was certainly showing signs of age, the pipeline of projects to be built had swollen to the point that it appeared that the Pittsburgh construction market would skate through any downturn that might come in 2021 or 2022. Of course, the downturn that materialized 75 days into the new year dashed that idea and laid waste to the economy. By summer, the hopes for a booming 2020 were gone. The human costs and loss of businesses and jobs have been devastating. From the perspective of construction underway and starting in 2020, however, Pittsburgh’s market performed better than feared.

Construction starts recovered stronger than was expected at mid-year. Residential construction was up sharply for single-family homes. New permits for single-family construction rose 12.7 percent year-over-year, to 3,337 new homes. Both single-family detached (2,337 units) and attached homes (1,000 units) saw increases. A steep decline in multi-family starts brought the overall total units started down to 4,138 units, more than 1,000 units off the 2019 pace. Apartment properties faced significant uncertainty throughout 2020 because of the COVID-19 virus and the economic downturn that resulted. Job losses, eviction freezes, and the maddening politics surrounding economic aid created an uncertain environment for landlords and developers. That uncertainty, along with significant municipal and state-level delays in the entitlement process, pushed at least 900 planned units from 2020 construction into 2021.

Nonresidential/commercial construction saw sufficient improvement in the last months of 2020 to bring construction volume within shouting distance of $4 billion. The $3.923 billion in construction of commercial and nonresidential building structures was nearly $1 billion less than was forecast at the beginning of 2020; however, the final tally was more than 10 percent higher than mid-year predictions for activity.

The prospect of widespread vaccination by mid-year is giving owners a view to recovery and boosting activity. Architects and engineers are reporting increased billing and bidding. The Biden administration’s priorities and slim Congressional majorities increase the likelihood that a major infrastructure package will boost construction spending and hiring by spring. That, in turn, seems to have been an impetus for progress on several of the region’s major projects, including the Pittsburgh International Airport modernization, First National Bank’s new headquarters in the Lower Hill District, and UPMC Heart and Transplant Hospital. The region’s two major hospital systems, UPMC and Allegheny Health Network, have upped construction budgets for 2021 and the following years, which is a good leading indicator for the construction industry.

Highwoods Properties is presenting plans for its new 65,000 square foot East Liberty Centre office building to the Zoniong Hearing Board on Feb. 18. PJ Dick is the construction manager. The presentation can be viewed at the Zoning Hearing Board site. AHN selected Sentinel Construction as the CM for its new $10 million parking garage at the new Wexford hospital site in Pine Township.

The Fog Begins to Lift on 2021

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The election is behind us. Confidence is growing in a spring delivery of an effective vaccine(s) to begin getting us past COVID-19. Along with better news for higher ed and healthcare since the fall, the recent developments are giving a clearer picture of the construction outlook for 2021. And it’s better than was expected 60 days ago. Escalating increases in hospitalizations for COVID-19 are likely to give the economy another punch to the gut over the next few months; however, assuming a vaccine is in circulation in early 2021, there is visibility on a recovery that should boost bidding and contracting next year.

The chart reflects Tall Timber Group’s forecast for the next two years, following a steep (perhaps 30%) decline in contracting in 2020. The amount of construction put in place may not decline nearly as much in 2020. That’s good news for contractors and suppliers. How the contracting unfolds in 2021 will determine how much better or worse next year is financially for the construction industry. Hospitals are thus far seeing their critical November/December elective surgery schedules hold up. College enrollments are in line with 2019. Anecdotes suggest that architects involved in healthcare and commercial real estate have ramped up already. That’s a good sign for spring bidding. Bear in mind that construction projects mostly won’t need to wait for immunization to start work. There just needs to be confidence that a corner will be turned by mid-year or thereabouts.

Owners will also want to see a corner turned on economic demand. The next few months will be critical to that as well. There are good signs that demand can roar back once the fear of infection subsides. U.S. households increased their savings deposits by $2 trillion from February to October. Capital has been amassing on the sidelines, whether in the form of the stock market or private equity. Unlike in 2010, there is dry powder to deploy. Recent data suggests that the economy still needs a bridge to get from here to a vaccine. Ideally, the lame duck Congress would pass further safety net measures. Failing that, it would be incumbent upon a new administration and Congress to act immediately to prop up those who will suffer from what is sure to be decreased economic activity this winter.

There is reason to be anxious about the timing of more aid from a demand point of view. Should an effective vaccine be delivered on a large scale during the first quarter of 2021, there would likely be a big jump in demand for economic activities that have been hard hit by the pandemic. That means travel, restaurants, entertainment (theaters, sports, concerts) would get a boost in revenues. The potential fly in the ointment is that demand would be dampened by lack of funds. The capital on the sidelines waiting to be deployed isn’t what will drive the consumer recovery. The $2 trillion in increased savings that consumers have built throughout 2020, even as many have lost jobs, represents 11% of GDP. That’s powerful fuel for a recovery. Propping up consumers for the last three months of the year becomes even more important when you consider that, and when you look closely at how the unemployment compensation picture changes on December 31.

Unemployment claims slowed again in the most recent week, but remain at 709,000 for first-time claims. Digging below the headline numbers, you can see a potentially damaging wave building. The greatest share of the 21.7 million out of work at the end of October are those receiving benefits tied to COVID-19. There are two categories of pandemic-created unemployment compensation, totaling 13.6 million people. Those receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC), which was part of the CARES Act, have exhausted regular unemployment compensation, and make up 4.1 million claims. Another 9.5 million self-employed have been receiving Pandemic Unemployment Insurance because they aren’t eligible for regular unemployment compensation. The numbers are growing weekly for PEUC claims, as regular unemployment compensation from mid-year expires. Because of the timing of the pandemic, the majority of these still-growing groups will see benefits end by December 31. Without aid, 8% of the total workforce will be without income in January. From that point, the reserves begin to deplete, robbing the recovery of fuel. The prospects for 2021 look good, but we’re not out of the woods yet, with or without a vaccine.

The Builders Exchange reports that the new Plum Municipal Center is out to bid, due December 8. Massaro Corporation was selected as construction manager for the $6 million expansion of the Pittsburgh Glass Center and the $2 million Holy Family Institute project.

Pittsburgh Office Market: Focus on Data – Not Speculation

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Earlier this week, JLL issued its Skyline Report, which got a bit of media play, particularly in the doom-and-gloom Pittsburgh Business Times. JLL’s report highlighted concerns about the surge in sublease space and the media emphasized JLL’s opinions about the impact of tech work-from-home on future office demand and the uncertain future of office because of WFH. These concerns are legitimate. If WFH becomes another trend that leads to downsizing of office usage by even 10%, it will add five million-plus square feet to the vacant inventory. That stuff makes for good headlines and click bait. The problem is that we have no idea when we’re getting out of this pandemic, let alone what things will look like on the other side. The better course is to look at the data.

JLL’s headline data point, a vacancy rate near 20%, is not comforting either, but it’s only marginally higher than 90 days earlier. Newmark Knight Frank released its thrid quarter reports today, and the data is similar. According to NKF, the overall vacancy rate moved from 17.9% in July to 18.5% in October. The more troubling trend is the year-over-year decline of 2.2 points. New construction deliveries of a million square feet were the main reason for the jump, with lower occupancy having a small impact. Rents held steady, rising three cents to $24.10/square foot. Rent is a lagging indicator, however, and the likelihood is strong that rents will fall as leases renew during the next 12 months. One interesting view of the NKF data is the stability of the market overall. Occupancy is above 80% for almost all submarkets. The east market is an outlier to the downside, with vacancies at 26.5%, and Oakland/East End vacancy is the outlier to the upside, at 11.8%. These two are the smallest submarkets by far, at just over three million square feet each. The remaining suburban and urban markets are between 16% and 18% +/-.

Vacancy has been growing in Pittsburgh since mid-2019. Source: Newmark Knight Frank

Office occupancy is a function of employment. Until there’s a medical solution to the COVID-19 virus outbreak, employment will be significantly lower than in February 2020. At last week’s meeting of the Federal Reserve Bank, the governors looked forward to unemployment staying below eight percent at year’s end and a steady decline in unemployment that returned to the four percent range in late 2022 or 2023. It won’t take that long for office occupancy to tick back down in Pittsburgh, but it’s worth remembering that 1) Pittsburgh’s office market was much softer in February 2020 than in February 2017, and 2) the speculation about declining office demand because of COVID-19 response is not unfounded.

The Fed’s observations about the economy were made before the Trump administration walked away from negotiations over a third major economic safety net package. The House of Representatives hurriedly passed a $1.3 trillion bill last week that was set to provide direct aid to households, additional assistance to small businesses, and funds for state and local governments, which have seen their revenues decimated. Aid for local government is particularly critical to the economy, according to the Fed. The bill contained a number of non-economic provisions that the Senate was not likely to accept but there was the basis for negotiations to continue. Reactions to the president’s shutdown of negotiations have been strongly negative and the White House today hinted that discussions had re-started. That would be good news. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned in the FOMC minutes that the risk from providing too little aid was much greater than overshooting government intervention, especially since inflation remains well below two percent. Absent more assistance, the economy is expected to remain in declining GDP growth through the winter.

Regional construction activity has begun to pick back up, with more bidding and RFP’s out. Carlow University is looking for developers to partner in its proposed 400,000 square foot research/mixed-use tower in Oakland. Cavcon Construction is starting work on a $4 million-plus Education and Tech Center in Indiana PA for Westmoreland Community College. New-Belle Construction was awarded the $4 million new manufacturing facility for Barchemy in Donora. Facility Support Services was awarded $2.7 million in contracts for renovations to the Dept. of Energy National Energy Technology Lab in South Park. PJ Dick is the contractor for $3 million in renovations to Aramark concession areas at PPG Paints Arena. A separate $1.5 million package of renovations for Rivers Casino at PPG Paints is out to bid to Mascaro, Massaro, and PJ Dick. Turner Construction is doing preconstruction on the $35 million AGH Neurology Center for Excellence.

The Two Sides of the Regional Unemployment Story

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There was a good story in Pittsburgh Quartelry’s digital update this morning on the region’s unemployment rate. Check out Julia’s Fraser’s story. The top line was good news. The unemployment rate fell from 12.8% in July to 10.5% in August. But the data was less rosy. The actual number of people employed fell by 39,405 from July to August; and the year-over-year decline in total employment plunged to more than 175,000. That’s the worst year-over-year decline since April 2020, and the second worst decline since the recession began in February. In part, that’s because August 2019 marked a high point in regional employment, with 1,157,274 people employed. However, the year-over-year decline jumped because the economy in Pittsburgh has weakened further with the end of the Payroll Protection Program.

Source: Department of Labor

These two concepts may seem at odds. How can unemployment drop more than two points when employment drops by almost four points? Remember, the unemployment rate is just the math. It’s easy to forget that if the total number of people in the workforce decline, the unemployment rate will decline (assuming the number of jobs lost doesn’t outstrip the number of people leaving the workforce). That’s what happened in August. While unemployment rose by 74,800 compared to August 2019 (or 6.5 points), the workforce declined by 48,000 people. It’s the latter number that is a key metric that we don’t understand at the moment. Pittsburgh Quarterly quotes Pitt’s Chris Briehm on the subject and he notes quite correctly that we won’t know the full story until the public health crisis ends.

It’s worth digging into that a bit. Briehm’s point is that the varying motives of people leaving the workforce during a pandemic make it impossible to judge whether or not there is an accelerating trend towards a smaller workforce. Unemployment insurance allows some people who can’t work remotely to not work, rather than take the risk of infection. Others will take the choice of unemployment over illness, even if they don’t qualify for UI. Still others who must work – like in restaurants or bars – may have chosen to relocate to states where those establishments have reopened to a greater degree than in Pennsylvania. And some of the workers have quit looking for work for now or have chosen to retire. Until there is clarity about the safety of the workplace, we won’t know how many of the workers who left the workforce are coming back; and until there is organic job growth, meaning adding of new positions, we won’t know how much of the discouraged workforce will return.

The significance of a declining workforce is obscured in a severe jobs recession like we’ve seen since March. For now, at least, the decline has positive benefits. Fewer people are looking for work. Pittsburgh’s unemployment rate is lower, even though the number of employed is much lower. If the people who have declared themselves as out of the workforce in August remain out, that means unemployment is not artificially low. That’s a good thing. But, if that’s true, then Pittsburgh faces a much bigger uphill battle once economic growth returns. Employers will struggle to find workers with the skills they need. Growing companies can’t tolerate that, so they will look elsewhere for talent. That means some will close shop in Pittsburgh and move elsewhere, or expand elsewhere instead of Pittsburgh. The region’s future is predicated on the innovation economy driving job growth in Pittsburgh. That can’t happen if innovators can’t find employees in Western PA. Our vaunted university research does Pittsburgh no good if the businesses that spin out of them move to Palo Alto or Austin or Nashville. Let’s hope that the cure for the public health crisis results in a cure for our workforce decline as well.

Where We Stand as We Move to Green

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Southwestern PA went to green today and I’m getting a haircut. Seems like a good time to look at where the market is.

This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly Employment Situation Summary, which had some of the first good economic news since January. Employers re-hired enough laid-off workers to add a net 2.5 million jobs in May, bringing the unemployment rate down to 13.3%. That’s pretty consistent with the decrease of four million receiing unemployment insurance during the week ending May 23. The report followed on the heels of Thursday’s news that first-time unemployment claims “fell” to 1.88 million last week. Earlier this week payroll firm ADP reported that private employment declined 2.76 million in May, a significant improvement over April. The most significant information in this morning’s BLS report was the analysis of the unemployed from the past few months. The relevant paragraph from the summary is quoted below:

In May, the number of unemployed persons who were jobless less than 5 weeks decreased
by 10.4 million to 3.9 million. These individuals made up 18.5 percent of the
unemployed. The number of unemployed persons who were jobless 5 to 14 weeks rose by
7.8 million to 14.8 million, accounting for about 70.8 percent of the unemployed. The
number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.2 million,
increased by 225,000 over the month and represented 5.6 percent of the unemployed.

The data shows the potential for strong recovery, providing that the news on the medical front remains positive. If economic activity were to return to 95% of GDP levels pre-COVID (a mark that would equal the output at the bottom of the financial crisis recession), unemployment should decline to 7-8%. That’s not a great economy but it is a vast improvement. Absent a medical solution to the virus, this outcome seems unlikely but the May data shows a possible path to a quick recovery. (That’s a scenario that seemed highly unlikely a month ago.) The risk in viewing this report as the start of a “V” shaped recovery is real, however. In the breakdown of industry-level hiring, the biggest gain was in hospitality (1,239,000), which remains mired in a deep slump from lack of demand. It’s likely that the bulk of the hiring in hospitality was the result of Payroll Protection, since we also know that demand for restaurants, hotels, and travel is off by 50-75%. The gains in construction and manufacturing (464,000 and 225,000 respectively) are more durable. Much of the economic activity that was lost since mid-March will be lost for 2020; however, the opportunity for a quicker-than-expected recovery exists if consumers and businesses did build reserves that can carry them into the late summer.

Yesterday’s extension of Payroll Protection Program benefits will help businesses stay afloat through the summer months and retain employees, which in turn provides income for rent, mortgage payments, and consumption. The INVEST Act, which was passed by the House of Representative Wednesday, also provides hope for the construction industry. INVEST authorizes infrastructure spending for the fiscal years 2021-2025. The $500 billion represents a 64% increase over the $305 billion authorized in the 2015 FAST Act. The authorization still has to pass the Senate.

Because of the lag in reporting, the data we have on the regional economy is not as sunny. The Department of Labor reported that unemployment jumped to 16.3% in metropolitan Pittsburgh during April. That tracks very closely with the expectations based upon U.S. data for April. It will take until mid-late July to see whether regional hiring picked back up in May to the same extent as the rest of the U.S. Construction data for the first five months in Pittsburgh suggests that nonresidential/commercial construction will fall below $2 billion for the first six months of 2020, a trend that indicates total construction in 2020 of less than $3.5 billion. That would be a decline of more than $1 billion from forecasts at the beginning of the year.

On June 1, Census Bureau reported on total U.S. construction spending. Because of its methodology, the spending looks much more optimistic than what is likely to be reality. AGC’s Ken Simonson points out that Census imputes a lot of modeling into its calculations in the absence of first-hand reporting from contractors, many of which did not report in April. He believes the actual totals will be much lower when revised in coming months.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Last week Pittsburgh’s Urban redevelopment Authority approved the Buccini Pollin plan for developing the 28-acre former Civic Arena site last week. The move cleared the path for the $200 million FNB Tower, which will be built by the PJ Dick/Mascaro/Massaro team. It was but one of several significant projects to move forward in the Hill. McAllister Equities is presenting its plans to the city for a $10 million, 51-unit apartment at 1717 Fifth Avenue. Franjo Construction is scheduled to start construction around August 1. The URA is publicizing the June 12 pre-bid meeting for the $10 million Granada Square redevelopment, a conversion of the Granada Theater in the Hill District into a 40-unit apartment built by Mistick Construction. Subcontractor/supplier bids are scheduled to be taken July 6. With the $450 million UPMC Mercy Vision & Rehabilitation Hospital underway, the Hill District is set to lead construction out of the recession caused by the coronavirus mitigation.

In other construction news, Mistick is also taking bids on the $16.5 millioin, 44-unit Jeremiah Village in Zelienople. PS Construction started work on $7.5 million build-out for medical marijuana facilities for CannTech in RIDC Thorn Hill. Sentinel Construction is working on a $1.4 million tenant improvement for Seneca Resources at 2000 Westinghouse Drive in Cranberry Township. Shannon Construction started work on an $800,000 TI for Matthews Marking Systems at Cranberry Business Park. A. Martini & Co. was successful on the new Chase Bank branch announced for Fox Chapel Road next to Fox Chapel Plaza. Charter Homes & Neighborhoods started work on the 26,000 square foot retail building at the Meeder Farm development in Cranberry Township that will include the Recon Brewery.

 

 

CMU Converting to Wind Power Could Set a Precedent in the Area

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CMU Converting to Wind Power Could Set a Precedent in the Area

CMU Converting to Wind Power Could Set a Precedent in the Area

In September of 2019, Carnegie Mellon University announced a deal with Engie Resources for wind power from a 306 megawatt wind farm in Illinois. The deal is to last through 2024, and would power its Pittsburgh campus. This was a bold move towards sustainability and viability of variable renewable energy (VRE), and sets a precedent for other businesses and universities in the area. The move could potentially signal a paradigm shift towards institutional use of environmentally conscious infrastructure for new construction and renovations alike.

With all of this in mind, today we will discuss wind power 101, how other regions and countries have successfully implemented wind power, and ultimately how the recent CMU wind power deal could impact the local CRE landscape.

Wind Power: the Basics

Wind power is a type of variable renewable energy (VRE). The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) does not identify technical barriers to a grid running solely on VRE, but instead, many of the challenges come from capacity factors. A capacity factor is based on how much power a plant produces in comparison to its overall potential, and it is often based on how often a plan is running or generating power. A conservative estimate for the capacity factor for VREs, namely wind and solar, is around 50 percent.

When there is wind, there is power. On the other hand, nuclear power plants usually have over 90 percent capacity factor. In the long term, however, the resources being utilized will dwindle, which is why many businesses, cities, and states are moving towards either a mix of “clean” energy or, in the case of Carnegie Mellon University, 100 percent wind power.

Examples of Wind Power Around the World

Examples of Wind Power Around the World

As of March 2020, 60 percent of Germany’s energy came from renewable sources, the majority of which came from wind turbines. China and the US lead all countries with total wind power usage, clocking in at 221 GW and 96.4 GW respectively. Interestingly, Germany (the third highest wind power producer in the world) sets a far more productive example of using wind power the right way. Meanwhile, China’s ambitious wind farms have been reported to go largely unused.

This concept of wasted alternative energy hits home in the US. While many Americans support alternative energy over traditional fossil fuels, recent polls have also shown that Americans also fear alternative fuels are less efficient and costlier than the current energy infrastructure. Germany is also a great parallel for Western PA as a region in that Germany has traditionally depended on coal economically and for their energy needs.

German infrastructure has been updated over the past 10 years to adopt more alternative energy sources including wind power that made energy production more efficient, cost effective, and beneficial to the economy overall. Other countries including India, Spain, and the UK have all adopted wind power with mostly positive results.

Implications of CMU Using Wind Power in Pittsburgh

Implications of CMU Using Wind Power in Pittsburgh

That background information leads us to the simple question: will CMU’s converting to wind power have a material impact on commercial real estate in the Pittsburgh area? Unfortunately, as with many issues concerning alternative fuels and climate change the answer is less than clear. Here are a few factors and considerations that will likely come into play when it comes to wind power adoption in Pittsburgh.

  1. Will there be sufficient alternative fuel infrastructure? Businesses and other organizations with the intention of switching to an alternative fuel such as wind power is one thing. Having the available resources and/or infrastructure to make that change is another. The US might produce the second most wind power on earth, but it is primarily located in the Great Plains states.
  2. Governmental and public support. Again, converting to wind power is a very significant choice that requires available supply and infrastructure. The US currently gets slightly more than 7% of its energy needs from wind power. While this number is expected to rise, the future remains murky.
  3. Cost viability of wind power in Pittsburgh. The success of the wind power program at CMU may influence public opinion but investment in wind power in the near future will still depend upon return on investment. As CMU’s contract will run through 2024, we expect to see more detailed numbers over the next 4 or so years.

Implications of CMU Using Wind Power in Pittsburgh

Going Forward

Alternative energy sources become less “alternative” by the day. Some countries, including Sweden and Iceland, have committed to cutting fossil fuels from their energy creation entirely. Such a transition is harder to sell in places, like Western PA, where natural gas and coal are still significant economic drivers. There are ideological and political shifts which will determine the future of alternative power sources including wind energy. American institutions like CMU committing to 100% alternative power generation will certainly have an impact on public perception of such programs.

Second Phase of Major AHN Construction Project Nearly Complete

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Second Phase of Major AHN Construction Projects Nearly Complete
Second Phase of Major AHN Construction Projects Nearly Complete

Allegheny Health Network, much like their latest business partners UPMC, have kept busy in recent years with commercial real estate purchases and developments. One of these development projects is a new emergency department in the Jefferson Hospital in Jefferson HIlls, PA. This project is just one of multiple renovations and new construction projects currently underway under the Allegheny Health Network Banner. Today, we will review the details of the AHN Jefferson Hospital project, discuss some other recent AHN commercial real estate deals, and end with how these projects might impact CRE in our local Pittsburgh region.

Details on the Jefferson Hospital Expansion Project

Details on the Jefferson Hospital Expansion Project

According to Commercial Property Executive: “Highmark Health and Allegheny Health Network have completed Phase I of the new emergency department of AHN Jefferson Hospital in Jefferson Hills, Pa. The project cost $21 million and expanded the existing facility by 34,000 square feet. During the renovations, the hospital’s helipad was also relocated to the roof of the structure. Phase II, which is expected to complete in May 2020, will consist of modernizing the current emergency department space.”

The AHN Jefferson Hospital is home to nearly 400 doctors covering over 40 areas of practice. The new emergency department will consist of:

  • 44 private treatment and observation rooms
  • 7 central nursing pods
  • A more modern and spacious triage area focused on privacy
  • Advance CT and x-ray capabilities
  • Trauma rooms
  • Rooms specially designed for behavior health assessments and treatments

The AHN Jefferson hospital currently cares for over 50,000 patients in the Lower Mon Valley and South Hills areas. This latest round of renovations comes on the heels of a $17.5 million investment into a new surgical suite.

Recent Allegheny Health Network CRE Investments

Recent Allegheny Health Network CRE Investments

While the AHN Jefferson Hospital upgrades are ongoing, they are certainly part of a larger effort being put forth by AHN to modernize and invest in their medical facilities. Here are some other recent examples.

AHN Constructing Harmar Hospital

AHN broke ground on a new Harmer Hospital location on October 5, 2018. The site is still under construction, but is expected to open this fall. Construction on the site was delayed for six months, but kicked back into full gear in July of 2019. The new Harmar Hospital will be located at the intersection of Freeport Road and Guys Run Road, near Zone 28 (formerly Fun Fest). The site will operate as an emergency hospital with additional services including imaging, inpatient care, and a multitude of lab tests.

AHN Construction on New Wexford Hospital

As of October 24, 2019, the final beam was put into place for the brand new AHN Wexford Hospital. The 160-bed hospital is expected to open in 2021. According to Cynthia Hundorfean, AHN CEO and President, “When Wexford Hospital opens its doors, it will be the most technologically advanced and patient-centric acute care hospital in western Pennsylvania.” The hospital is being built in response to the rapid growth in Pine Township and the surrounding areas.

AHN Waterworks Outpatient Center

On a smaller scale, Allegheny Health Network has also committed time and resources into developing outpatient centers for local residents. The most recent of these investments went into the AHN Waterworks Outpatient Center. The center employees ~35 workers, and includes:

  • Gynecologist/obstetrician appointments with full ultrasound capabilities
  • Orthopedic care provided by Allegheny Orthopedic Associates
  • Primary care for adults and children
  • Cardiology care including echograms
  • Diagnostics services including blood tests, MRI, CT scans, 3-D mammography, and more
  • Express care service for non-emergency healthcare with no appointment necessary

How Medical Construction Impacts Western PA Commercial Real Estate

How Medical Construction Impacts Western PA Commercial Real Estate

Allegheny Health Network has been investing heavily into the local community, but how does that impact the local Pittsburgh commercial real estate market? While the full breadth of these major CRE investments is far reaching, here are a few primary takeaways:

Investment in local healthcare drives the local economy. It is well documented that greater healthcare investments lead to greater economic health. This has been shown to be true on both large and small scales. As AHN and UPMC continue to invest and improve our local healthcare resources, the population gets healthier, jobs are created, and the overall quality of life improves. This creates a stronger economy which in turn has a positive impact on commercial real estate in the area.

Greater healthcare services serve our aging population. Pennsylvania, like much of the US, has an aging population. As a greater percentage of our local population is 65 plus, the need for healthcare services increases. AHN investing in hospitals and outpatient centers allows the aging population to remain in their current areas. This increases the demand for housing, retail locations, and commercial real estate overall.

AHN is choosing to renovate defunct retail locations. On a more specific note, AHN and other local healthcare providers have been more willing to renovate/repurpose spaces in dead malls and other retail locations. This could be great news for CRE investors sitting on vacant retail spaces. At the end of the day, any CRE investments from our regional healthcare networks should be a shot in the arm to the commercial real estate market overall.