Blog

The Confusing Future of Office Space

Imagine you’re the owner or developer of office buildings. For the past two months most, if not all, of your properties have been nearly empty. A pandemic has forced the adoption of new work habits for tens of millions of people, now working from home and thinking differently about what their workplace should be. Some tenants may not survive the disruption. Those that do are going to have new needs. Think of the questions running through your mind as the landlord:

• When will my tenants come back to the building?
• What do they want from me that is different from what they wanted in January?
• How many of them will work from home now?
• Will they expect me to clean more often? How often?
• What do I do with that million-dollar amenity space I just renovated in the lobby?
• Will they need less space?
• Will they need more space?

This is hardly a parlor game for landlords. As two weeks of social distancing has turned into two months (or more) of shelter-at-home, experts have begun regularly speculating about what the post-pandemic office will look like. Since I’m on record opposing any kind of post-crisis predictions made while the crisis is ongoing, I’ll refrain from commenting upon the many predictions being offered, except to say that I agree the workplace will be different. Bear in mind, however, that there is rarely a time when it is untrue that the workplace of the future will be different. There were already a number of workplace-altering trends in place in 2020. The pandemic has accelerated, eliminated or exaggerated most of them.

First among the trends being accelerated is the move away from the open office plan. Hundreds of articles had been published about the fatigue that was setting in about open office plans. Whatever benefits came from that office design trend are currently being weighed against the fear of easier infection transmission. Likewise, the need to maintain a safe distance from co-workers is inspiring fresh looks at collaboration spaces and shared amenities, which were among the “must haves” for occupiers looking to use their real estate to attract talent.

Developer Jim Scalo is among those looking to understand what changes will be required of the post-COVID-19 workplace. He’s an advocate for the idea of attracting talent through better real estate. He also believes that on balance the pandemic will create demand for more space and he’s not alone. Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt recently made the same prediction on Meet the Press.

The rationale behind this theory is the need to make space less densely populated in order to reduce the risk of infection. Fewer people per square foot mean more space. This flies in the face of one of the primary motives driving the more dense open office plan: lower rent. Open plans may have been trendy for any number of reasons, but the most compelling (and mostly unspoken) was the decrease in space needed. CFOs became very trendy people once they realized the bottom line benefit of density was a smaller rent payment.

Countering the argument for more space is the change in perception about work from home (WFH). Forced to work from home for two months, the American office worker has adjusted very well. The same is true for employers. Most of them look at their next lease renewal with the new perspective on WFH and see the potential for a smaller office footprint. One big North Shore tenant was looking forward to expanding space to keep up with a growing workforce. A month into shelter-at-home, he wondered if he could get smaller space for the same number of people.

You can start to understand why office building owners and occupants are searching for answers. There isn’t much data on the subject and what exists adds to the dilemma. Continental Office did a survey of 424 people, ranging from admins to CEOs, during April and published the results today. Here are some highlights:

• 95% expect the office to be disinfected before returning to work and 96% expect the office to be cleaned and disinfected more often.

• 76% of people think shared seating should be eliminated. 71% think adding partitions to workstations is important.

• 58% of CEOs say they are re-thinking the amount of space they use.

• 74% of people aged 25-34 say they want a WFH option. 72% of all people said they were as productive or more productive working from home as from the office.

• 94% still want to have a physical workspace, regardless of how often they work from home.

• 72% said they missed the social interaction of an office.

Now try reconciling the last two bullet points with the three above them. Work from home can reduce the physical footprint of a business, but not if the company still needs to maintain a workplace for 94% of the workers! That’s probably the reason that Perkin Eastman’s Jeff Young guesses that some form of shared address seating will be part of the future office plan.

Young was one of just a few architects who said that clients had requested that they look at actual space requirements as a result of the pandemic. For their part, architects are being proactive and have generated some interesting guidelines for post-COVID offices, like The Post Quarentine Workplace from Dan Delisio at NEXT Architecture, or We are Here to Help from Perkins Eastman, or WELL Building Cleaning Protocol from Chip Desmone.

At the end of the day, it will be the occupants of the offices that drive whatever the office of the future looks like. Thus far, occupants are just as confused. Two veteran tenant reps, Kim Ford from COEO and Dan Adamski from JLL, were clear that it was too early to draw any conclusions. In fact, they both indicated a lack of specific requirements from tenants. Searches for space are on hold, except for those who absolutely must move.

It’s tough to count your blessings in the midst of a pandemic and business shutdown. You can, at least, thank your lucky stars that you don’t own an office building right now.

What We Know So Far (And What We Don’t)

This morning’s April jobs report was both stunning and completely expected. The headline – that 20.5 million fewer persons were employed in April – is unprecedented in documented U.S. history. At the same time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report was in line with the trend from the weekly unemployment claims filed during the past eight weeks. The unemployment rate of 14.7% was slightly lower than what was forecasted by economists.

The data confirms that the U.S. economy has a mountain to climb before recovering. Anyone who gives you a forecast of how that recovery will go is a fool. There is no playbook for this kind of recession. Virtually none of the lessons from 9/11, the financial crisis, or the Great Depression for that matter, can be applied directly to the current situation. Government action has been swift but more time is required to judge if the quick action was an effective backstop or a Band-Aid on a bullet wound. There are some big trends beginning to appear, however. None can provide certainty about the near-term future but any clarity is welcome.

1) Government action will not restart the economy. Reopening business (more accurately, removing shelter at home restrictions) is different from restarting the economy. Evidence from China, Italy, Texas, Denmark, and Sweden points to a consumer who won’t return to consuming just because stores are open. Sweden has been held up as a model of remaining “normal” while the pandemic raged. Swedish consumers did not spend normally, reducing personal consumption by roughly 80% since March. It’s going to take a medical solution to make consumers comfortable that there is little or no risk in returning to normal activity.

2) China’s role in the world will change. As the U.S. relinquishes its leadership role in many global organizations, China has stepped in to increase its investment. Chinese companies, backed by its government, are poised to swoop in to buy struggling European auto makers and international airlines at pennies on the dollar. At the same time, China’s role in the global supply chain has made thousands of manufacturers vulnerable. Re-shoring the supply chain will happen. If it happens to a large degree, much of China’s manufacturing and its burgeoning middle class will be decimated. Negative sentiment about China’s lack of information and disinformation about the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan is fueling a backlash that will impact its trade. Whatever trajectory China was on in the global scene will be altered going forward.

3) The pandemic will accelerate the trend that was rewarding scale. Bigger companies will get bigger. There will be an acceleration of mergers and acquisitions once financing becomes more certain. Some big corporations will fail and their customers will make big competitors bigger.

For the Pittsburgh economy, some of these emerging macroeconomic trends could have some pretty specific impacts. As a center of medical research, Pittsburgh could get a boost if a treatment or vaccine originates here or can be replicated here. Will the disruption of China’s global role dim the flow of students and researchers to CMU and Pitt? Will the pandemic limit the number of foreign students overall to the economic drivers of our region. Does a tech giant buy struggling auto companies or consumer appliance makers and alter the arc of autonomous vehicle or artificial intelligence research in Pittsburgh?

On March 30 I posted that you shouldn’t trust articles that were heavy on “could,” “might,” or “may.” The word “could” only appears twice in this post but I’d still caution you from putting much stock in predictions at this point, especially those I make.

Construction returned to work this week in PA and the reports are that it went fairly smoothly. The Shell cracker project is a notable exception to the restart of work, although more workers are expected on site next week. There is no word from Shell or Great Arrow as to when a return for the 5,000-plus workers will occur.

PurePenn expansion at RIDC McKeesport. Photo by Emily Sipes.

In construction news, Arco Murray is underway on the $20 million PurePenn expansion at RIDC McKeesport. Momentum Inc. has started work on the new $2.8 million Armco Federal Credit Union Hub Branch in Mars. Haemonetics selected Al. Neyer to build-out its new $24 million lab in Findlay Township. AIMS Construction was awarded the $1.9 million UPMC St. Margaret’s Hospital roof and air handler replacement. MBM Contracting is working on $4 million-plus renovations at Jefferson Medical Arts Building and South Hills Medical Building in Jefferson Hills.

First Glimpses of the Construction Economy Post-Reopening

Construction resumes on Friday. There will be a number of conditions placed upon construction activities that will be restrictive. Over the next couple of months contractors and owners will test the limits of their collaborative natures as workers incorporate cleaning, distancing, and additional safety clothing into their daily productivity. There will be challenges to the productivity assumptions of all parties to a construction project. Questions remain unanswered about how willing the skilled worker will be to return to work, and how willing the construction owner is going to be to reopen its job site with so many unknown factors.

One of the unknowns about restarting construction is how much demand will return for construction services. Here in Pittsburgh, there were a handful of mega-projects in some form of construction or development that will create immediate demand for many workers, assuming the work resumes. It appears the Shell Franklin project will continue to its finish in 2021. Likewise, the $1.1 billion airport Terminal Modernization Program is expected to resume its early contract bidding this spring. Less certain are the $1.2 billion US Steel Mon Valley Works modernization, the $8 billion PTT cracker, and the timing of the UPMC Transplant and Heart Hospital at Presbyterian Hospital in Oakland. More uncertain, of course, is the demand from the bread-and-butter construction economy.

As states reopen for business gradually, the U.S. economy will begin shaking off the effects of around six weeks of shutdown. One effect of the timing of the sheltering at home is the lack of data measuring its impact. With more than 26 million first-time claims for unemployment filed during the period, it’s not hard to assume that consumers will have spent much less than normal. Consumer spending declines varied depending upon the type of expense. Clothing sales fell 50%. Hotel and airline receipts plummeted by more than 90%. Grocery sales jumped by 15%. All of these comparisons are March-to-February. We can be certain that a full month of sheltering in April will depress numbers again in April. Manufacturing also declined. Capacity utilization dropped over 7 points to 72.7% currently. Six weeks into the recession conditions, some data is emerging to give a view to the recovery that will follow.

Tuesday morning, CBRE’s senior economic advisor, Spencer Levy, addressed an audience of Pittsburgh real estate executives about the commercial real estate market recovery. In the presentation, called “Reassessing Pittsburgh’s Real Estate and Economic Outlook,” Levy expressed optimism about the macro economy and Pittsburgh’s economy. Levy pointed to the recovery in Hong Kong and China (to an extent) as indicators that demand for goods and services will return. His belief in a “V-shaped” recovery may be overly optimistic for the U.S. economy, but he made a case for Pittsburgh’s resilience to the downturn. Levy pointed out that cities with strong technology sectors, like San Francisco, Boston and Austin, saw stronger economic performance after the financial crisis and the 9/11 Dotcom bubble recessions. He expressed caution about the depressed oil/gas sector and the potential decline in international students, which have helped drive the strong universities in Pittsburgh.

More globally, Levy predicted that the “next 45 days are the most important for commercial real estate in U.S. history.” The slowdown in leasing and acquisitions reflects the great uncertainty about future occupancy and rents. Levy noted that CBRE-managed properties had fared better than expected thus far. Its multi-family and office rent collections were running at 90% of normal, while industrial properties were at 70%. Retail and hotels rents were between 20% and 40%. In his opinion, the next six weeks would help U.S. commercial real estate find a bottom and pricing certainty. From that point Levy predicted that multi-family and industrial properties would recover in 2021; office buildings would recover in 2022; and retail and hotels would lag into a third year of recovery.

Another global indicator of future construction, the AIA’s Architectural Billings Index (ABI), reflected the sudden shock to the economy that came in mid-March, with the billings index falling further than at any time in its history to 33.3%. The ABI is a binary index that reflects whether a firm’s billings increased or decreased from the previous month. The reading in March indicates that 2/3 of all firms saw declines in billings. That matches the responses at the depths of the Great Recession in Jan-Feb 2009.

Some of the major commercial real estate projects in Pittsburgh are continuing to advance, perhaps validating Levy’s point about the tech and biomedical sectors. Wexford Science & Technology took proposals from Turner and Mascaro on its 180,000 square foot research building on Forbes Avenue. A few blocks west, PJ Dick is bidding packages on Walnut Capital’s $100 million Innovation Research Tower. Spear Street Capital took proposals on the $50 million conversion of the former Sears Outlet at 51st Street. Aurora took proposals on tenant improvements for 140,000 square feet at 1600 Smallman Street.

Clarification: The April 23 post incorrectly listed AIMS Construction as the low bidder on a $4.5 million renovation to Pitt’s Cathedral of Learning ground floor, which was put on hold. AIMS was low on one alternative for the $1.5 million Architectural Film Studies Lab at the Cathedral of Learning. Dick Building Co. was the low bidder on the other alternative proposal.

Construction Readying to Re-Start May 1

The construction industry in PA received its second re-start news in the past week last night when Gov. Wolf announced his plan for reopening the PA economy. In Wednesday evening’s announcement was the news that construction could begin again on a limited basis on May 1. The announcement from last Thursday put the re-start of construction at May 8. Read the governor’s 3-step process to reopening.

Wolf’s most recent announcement was lacking updated instructions on what “limited” meant. If that assumes the same standards as were indicated last Friday, it means contractors can return with protective gear and follow the CDC’s guidelines for safe work. That would include washing/sanitizing tools and equipment, maintaining six-foot distancing between workers, heightened job site cleaning, and restrictions on workers congregating together. There were limits on the number of workers discussed after the April 16 announcement, which will need to be confirmed prior to returning to work. Those limits allowed four workers for projects up to 2,000 square feet, with one worker per 500 square feet after that. These limits could present a problem for small complicated projects like hospitals or labs, where multiple trades need to work in small spaces like MRI units or operating rooms. For medium-to-large spaces, however, the limits are manageable. For example, a 30,000 square foot project would accommodate 60 workers at a time.

Diamond Ridge. Rendering by NEXT Architecture

With the industry on the verge of re-opening, some construction news is in order. This morning, Burns & Scalo Real Estate announced it was developing Diamond Ridge, a 500,000 square foot, $130 million office complex of three buildings in Moon Township. The firm does its own construction and work is expected to start one the first building at the end of the year. Volpatt Construction was awarded the $3 million Langley Hall renovation at Pitt. DiMarco Construction was successful on the $2.75 million Butler County Community College South Campus maintenance building. DiMarco was also the low general on the $13 million South Hills Village PAT Station and garage renovation. MBM Contracting is doing the $3 million amenity space at One Gateway Center. United Contractors was awarded the general package on the $6.6 million Moniteau School District renovations in Butler County. Rycon Construction will be converting two buildings into Chase Bank branches in Oakland and on McKnight Road in Ross Township.

This morning’s announcement of first-time unemployment claims reported 4.4 million new unemployed in the week ending April 21. That brings the total of the four weeks since the national emergency was declared to more than 26 million claims. Beginning May 1, we will begin to get some hard economic data on activity since the shutdown of business. Expect that construction spending totals will not be as bad a number as many other indicators, since only three states stopped construction. The drop in demand for construction should reduce the total to near $1 trillion. That’s about a $300 billion decline since February.

The Great Disruption – One Month In

We are apparently expected to name our economic events. The title above is one I’m seeing increasingly as the reference to the recession we are now experiencing. This past week marked the first month of sheltering at home in PA, and for most of the U.S. Today, the Labor Department reported that 5.2 million more Americans filed for unemployment last week. That brings the total for the four weeks to more than 22 million people laid off. It’s likely that number will be added to significantly next week but many economists believe that the terrible total from the first four weeks will have brought the U.S. economy very close to the bottom of the cycle. Allowing for the few companies that were hiring during April, the next jobs report on May 1 should show unemployment above 17%.

It’s way too soon to have a clear idea of what the recovery from this looks like. First, we’d have to have a clear end to the pandemic. In the U.S., there are insufficient means to test and trace those who are infected, meaning that the methods used to return to normal in other countries that have beaten back COVID-19 can’t be applied here yet. Assuming that business does begin to re-boot sometime in May, here are a couple of thoughts about what to expect from various economists and researchers:

Source: Wells Fargo Economics Group, U.S. Dept. of Commerce

1: Reopening the economy in the manner suggested by the advisors to the White House would lead to about one-third of the unemployed to rejoin the workforce by July. That brings unemployment back to 13% or so.
2: The abrupt nature of the disruption probably dipped GDP into negative territory for the first quarter. The deep decline since late March should compress most of the technical recession into the second quarter. That dip will be catastrophic, likely above 20%.
3: GDP growth should return in the third quarter. Some very smart economists predict that GDP will bounce back 7-10% this summer. I’m not sure I buy that but I understand upon what those experts base their forecast.
4: Without adequate testing and tracing, COVID-19 infections will flare up in the fall (maybe even sooner in places that have ignored the advice to practice social distancing). Controlling those flare-ups of community spread will allow the recovery to continue.
5: “Normal” will not return again until there is a widely available, affordable, treatment for COVID-19. That can either be a therapy or a vaccine.

The discussions/shouting match about reopening the economy is political, not economic. Neither the president, nor Congress, nor governor, nor mayor can get people back into restaurants, shopping centers, and offices if they don’t trust the environment will be safe for them. It’s why the success of finding a therapy or vaccine is not just a medical necessity but also an economic necessity. If we can take an antibiotic, or gargle with Listerine, or get a shot, and be confident that it won’t kill us, we’ll begin to return to our old habits of consumption. That’s when the economy will grow fast enough to bring everyone back to work.

One surprising finding from talking to local contractors this past week: bidding didn’t really slow down over the past month. Most of the public bidding did; however, owners as varied as PNC, Hitchiker Brewing, Chase Bank, Walnut Capital, Dancing Gnome, and Pitt have taken bids and awarded contracts while we have been sheltering. These haven’t turned into construction starts yet but it suggests that some number of the owners are ready to renew their business when it is safe to do so.

In construction news, the $40 million CCAC Workforce Development Center is out to bid. Likewise, bids are being taken for the $20 million Arnold Palmer Airport Runway Expansion and the $15 million Montgomery Dam repairs near Monaca. Pittsburgh’s URA approved financing for several projects this week. Mistick Construction will be renovating 327 North Negley into apartments, a $10.7 million project. URA approved funding for the $27 million Flats on Forward in Squirrel Hill, which PJ Dick will build. Buccini/Pollin and the Penguins unveiled its plans to the URA for purchasing the site for the $200 million FNB Tower in the Lower Hill. That project will be built by a venture involving PJ Dick, Mascaro and Massaro.

Iconic Wholey’s Building to be Converted into Office Tower

Iconic Wholey’s Building to be Converted into Office Tower

Iconic Wholey’s Building to be Converted into Office Tower

Most Pittsburghers are very familiar with the “Wholey Fish”, a longtime part of the strip district’s personality. Of course, this is nothing to speak of the Robert Wholey Company which stakes its claim as the most well-known seafood grocer in Western PA. While the company isn’t going anywhere, the iconic smiling fish is slated to make way to a brand new office tower. Ultimately, this change in the Pittsburgh skyline is a sign of a healthy commercial real estate market seizing an opportunity to turn a previously all-but-vacant property into a viable working space right next to downtown. 

Today, we will review the details of the new construction plans by reviewing the demolition plans, the new office tower which is expected to go up in the place of the Wholey Building, and by discussing a very brief history of the Robert Wholey Company and its tight-knit relationship with the city of Pittsburgh. 

Plans to Demolish the Wholey’s Cold Storage Facility

Plans to Demolish the Wholey’s Cold Storage Facility

Most folks simply know the large concrete building at the edge of the strip district as the Wholey Building. The proper name of the structure is, in fact, the Federal Cold Storage Building, address 1501 Penn Avenue. The property was purchased in October of 2018 by JMC Holdings, a New York City-based “entrepreneurial real estate company.” Locals might know JMC Holdings from their $15 million project redeveloping The Pennsylvanian. 

The commercial real estate property investors have recently announced plans to demolish the Federal Cold Storage Building. This demolition/construction effort will not have an impact on the Wholey Fish Market business which currently operates on Penn Avenue. Wholey’s has been quick to assure customers that while the iconic Wholey Fish might be gone in the near future, the company has barely utilized the cold storage center at 1501 Penn in recent years. 

For those of you wondering about the neon fish sign itself, it is not known whether it will make the move to a different building or be retired as part of the demolition. 

New 21-Story Office Space to Replace Wholey’s Building

New 21-Story Office Space to Replace Wholey’s Building

When JMC Holdings purchased 1501 Penn Avenue in 2018, their goal was always to replace the structure with a modern office building filled with top-of-the-line amenities. As the ball has begun to roll with this development effort, we have some additional details on what the building might look like:

  • 21 Stories and 950,000 square feet: The new office building is expected to be significantly larger in overall size than the previous Federal Cold Storage Building.

  • 13 floors and 520,000 square feet dedicated to office space: Initial plans include using the lion’s share of the floors and the overall square footage for office space.

  • 900 car parking capacity and a “footprint” of 17,000 square feet: Transportation amenities will also include a bike shop, convenient bike parking, and a cycling maintenance area.

  • Amenities including a fitness center, outdoor terrace, large conference rooms, and more: JMC Holdings has openly expressed its desire to take full advantage of the unique zoning in the strip district by offering a wide range of amenities. 

JMC Holdings engaged Turner Construction to do preconstruction during the early phase of planning when the project was proposed as an office of less than 300,000 square feet. Before the past holiday season JMC sought new proposals from Turner and PJ Dick/Dick Building Co. No selection has been made for the next preconstruction phase.

Going Forward

The Strip District has been a hotbed for commercial real estate expansion in the past few years. This newest move by JMC Holdings to erect an office building may have an interesting ripple effect across the immediate area and the downtown work environment overall. JMC has just begun the process of getting the site entitled and seeking the zoning variances necessary to build the project. Some officials have expressed skepticism about the project, it’s worth noting that Mayor Peduto’s displeasure with the aesthetics has no planning or zoning authority. There are no official dates for demolition, construction, or completion at this time. 

PropTech for CRE in 2020 and Beyond

PropTech for CRE in 2020 and Beyond

PropTech for CRE in 2020 and Beyond

PropTech might not be a deeply ingrained industry standard, but every indication is that it is here to stay. Short for property technology, PropTech is essential for commercial real estate professionals and average people alike. The name PropTech suggests some sort of trendy new thing, but it represents more of a shift in real estate thinking than any one technological advancement. PropTech allows the real estate industry to act intelligently, anticipate future trends, and even improve customer experience

With all of this in mind, today we will aim to define PropTech, identify how PropTech is being used today, and how PropTech has and will continue to impact the commercial real estate landscape.

What is PropTech

What is PropTech? (Property Technology)

According to techtarget.com: “PropTech (property technology) is the use of information technology (IT) to help individuals and companies research, buy, sell and manage real estate…PropTech uses digital innovation to address the needs of the property industry.” In other words, PropTech can be thought of as any software or data analysis application that can be utilized within the real estate sector. 

It can be tempting to assume that PropTech must utilize some cutting edge technology like advanced algorithms, artificial intelligence, or advanced cloud computing. Those technologies certainly can be used, but the everyday realities of PropTech are more about the utilization of any technology for real estate purposes than the nature of the underlying technology itself. 

Going back to the introduction, commercial real estate is an industry that relies on industry wisdom like the one percent rule, the 50 percent rules, vacancy rates, cash flow rules, and much more. This creates a situation where real estate firms and professionals willing to embrace PropTech have a unique leg up on the competition. 

How PropTech is Used for Real Estate Today

How PropTech is Used for Real Estate Today

How can PropTech be used in the real world? Here are some ways in which PropTech is already being used for commercial, residential, and industrial real estate today.

  • Handling big data in the real estate sector: before diving into specifics, one of the main benefits of integrating PropTech into real estate is the need for real estate investors and other industry professionals to leverage the big data available today. When information is cheap, utilizing this information in a profitable manner is essential.

  • Real estate rental and/or buying sites: there are dozens of legitimate real estate search sites out there where users can rent or buy properties. Most people think of these as being for individuals searching for residential real estate, but plenty of PropTech apps/sites exist for commercial real estate including Digsy and LoopNet.

  • Virtual tour applications: for premium real estate listings, virtual tours have become the expectation. Full 360-degree tours available in VR and through standard screens are certainly examples of PropTech. This application has become extremely valuable as social distancing and more severe isolation measures taken to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic limit physical property tours.

  • Real estate investment technology: for the investor, there are plenty of CRE investment apps from which to choose. These apps might run the numbers on property valuations, give comparables, set realistic rent goals, and much more.

  • Blockchain technology: the technology which allows many cryptocurrencies to operate without government backing is also getting a stronger foothold into the world of real estate every day. For more on blockchain technology and commercial real estate, read on here.

  • Consumer technology that connects them to the world of real estate: just about anything can be PropTech if it is used for the purposes of real estate. This could include your smart device, a digital assistant, a web browser and more. 

Commercial Real Estate PropTech Today and Tomorrow

Commercial Real Estate PropTech Today and Tomorrow

Many of the aforementioned applications of PropTech tie in closely with commercial real estate. The integration between technology and commercial real estate investment and construction gets deeper by the day. One aspect that we have not yet mentioned is how the commercial real estate industry is investing in PropTech itself. In 2016, over $2.5 billion was invested in real estate tech organizations. 

It is next to impossible to predict the future of technology. What is more reliably true is that PropTech will continue to influence commercial real estate construction and investment. A notable downstream impact of PropTech that we did not yet mention is how technology tends to equalize the “have’s” and the “have not’s” in deeply seeded industries. Where commercial real estate information used to be very difficult to find and analyze, many PropTech solutions offer anybody with an internet connection a fairly comprehensive look at industry information. This might also encourage more commercial real estate investment through REITs, crowdfunding, and other modern options. 

Going Forward

Major commercial real estate firms are not only trying to develop their own PropTech, but they are also trying to locate and utilize the best PropTech solutions from startups and third-party companies. The world of commercial real estate is always looking out for the next big industry disruptors such as finding new talent, changing consumer behaviors, and the future of the economy. The emergence and evolution of PropTech is right there with the most significant disruptors to the future landscape of CRE.

Bed Bath & Beyond Nets $250 Million in Recent Retail Real Estate Deal

Bed Bath & Beyond Nets $250 Million in Recent Retail Real Estate Deal

Bed Bath & Beyond Nets $250 Million in Recent Retail Real Estate Deal

The stagnation or flat out devaluation of retail real estate values has been well documented in recent years. Dead malls and empty storefronts aren’t just headlines in the news, they are apparent for most of us in our daily lives. Yet it isn’t all doom and gloom. Brick & mortar retail is bouncing back in many regions and within many business sectors. Perhaps more importantly, commercial real estate owners are finding new and different methods to make retail spaces profitable again. In the case of Bed Bath & Beyond, their recent sale and leaseback arrangement could set a precedent for other struggling retailers to get an influx of liquid cash while also planning for the future. 

Details of the Recent $250 Million Bed Bath & Beyond Property Sale

Details of the Recent $250 Million Bed Bath & Beyond Property Sale

Bed Bath & Beyond sold a large portion of its owned commercial real estate in January for a grand total of $250 million. The sale included a wide range of properties including multiple retails stores, office space, and a distribution center, totaling 2.1 million square feet. The commercial real estate portfolio was purchased by Oak Street Real Estate Capital, a privately owned real estate firm operating out of Chicago. It is estimated that the 2.1 million square foot sale accounts for approximately 50% of the real estate owned by Bed Bath & Beyond.

As part of the sales agreement, Bed Bath & Beyond has agreed to lease these properties back from Oak Street Real Estate Capital for an undisclosed period of time. According to Bed Bath & Beyond CEO Mark Tritton: “This marks the first step toward unlocking valuable capital in our business that can be put to work to amplify our plans to build a stronger, more efficient foundation to support revenue growth, financial stability and enhance shareholder value.”

Why This Move is Being Viewed as a Positive for Shareholders

Why This Move is Being Viewed as a Positive for Shareholders

Bed Bath & Beyond, like many struggling retailers, has a debt problem. According to their own public financial reports, the retail giant had accumulated approximately $1.5 billion in total debts as of early 2019. This had investors concerned in previous years. The decision to dump about half of its real estate interests was viewed as a smart move by many in the investment industry based on the fact that Bed Bath & Beyond desperately needed liquid capital to reinvest in their business.

New CEO Mark Tritton prioritized the sale of this property to free up the value of the company’s portfolio. Of course, renting vs. owning creates its own set of headaches. Now Bed Bath & Beyond is on the hook to wisely use this influx of cash to turn a profit or risk wasting their previously owned real estate assets. 

Some Pros and Cons of “Sale-Leaseback” Deals

Some Pros and Cons of “Sale-Leaseback” Deals

Sale-leaseback agreements are relatively uncommon, but they can certainly be mutually beneficial under the right circumstances. With deals like the one struck between Bed Bath & Beyond and Oak Street Real Estate Capital, there are some key benefits and risks that come with the territory, including:

  • Pro: the new lessee frees up capital. As we have already reviewed, perhaps the most obvious and important benefit from the perspective of the seller is the injection of cash they receive from the sale of their real estate. This one in the hand is worth two in the bush only works if organizations reinvest their cash wisely.
  • Pro: sale-leaseback agreements are alternatives to loans. When companies need cash fast, they generally seek loans or equity financing. Sale-leaseback deals allow companies to raise their own capital using owned assets and save money in the long run.
  • Con: tax implications. $250 million in cash sounds like a great deal, but Bed Bath & Beyond may be responsible for paying property sales tax on their new cash injection. There are deductions and reinvestment options to save on taxes, but taxes will be part of the picture regardless.
  • Con: lost long term value. Owning property might not be as sexy as making a huge sale, but the value of real estate cannot be overstated in the long haul. Selling massive real estate interests can be detrimental overall.

Impact of the Deal on Commercial Real Estate Going Forward

Sale-leaseback deals are nothing new. The impact of Bed Bath & Beyond’s recent real estate dump might come down to how the move impacts the company’s financial standing in the next few years. Complicating matters further, the recent Coronavirus fueled bear market has muddied the public’s ability to track Bed Bath & Beyond’s financial health in March and beyond. Projections still suggest that the move will benefit Bed Bath & Beyond in the long term. This may prompt other cash strapped retailers to make similar decisions with their commercial real estate portfolios. 

It will also be telling to see whether the company continues to sell its remaining CRE assets. Other major retailers like Macy’s and Sears have also employed this in the past with mixed results. Whether the latest major sale-leaseback is a revitalization or a last gasp, it will likely inform the future decisions of other companies in similar situations moving forward.

CMU Converting to Wind Power Could Set a Precedent in the Area

CMU Converting to Wind Power Could Set a Precedent in the Area

CMU Converting to Wind Power Could Set a Precedent in the Area

In September of 2019, Carnegie Mellon University announced a deal with Engie Resources for wind power from a 306 megawatt wind farm in Illinois. The deal is to last through 2024, and would power its Pittsburgh campus. This was a bold move towards sustainability and viability of variable renewable energy (VRE), and sets a precedent for other businesses and universities in the area. The move could potentially signal a paradigm shift towards institutional use of environmentally conscious infrastructure for new construction and renovations alike.

With all of this in mind, today we will discuss wind power 101, how other regions and countries have successfully implemented wind power, and ultimately how the recent CMU wind power deal could impact the local CRE landscape.

Wind Power: the Basics

Wind power is a type of variable renewable energy (VRE). The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) does not identify technical barriers to a grid running solely on VRE, but instead, many of the challenges come from capacity factors. A capacity factor is based on how much power a plant produces in comparison to its overall potential, and it is often based on how often a plan is running or generating power. A conservative estimate for the capacity factor for VREs, namely wind and solar, is around 50 percent.

When there is wind, there is power. On the other hand, nuclear power plants usually have over 90 percent capacity factor. In the long term, however, the resources being utilized will dwindle, which is why many businesses, cities, and states are moving towards either a mix of “clean” energy or, in the case of Carnegie Mellon University, 100 percent wind power.

Examples of Wind Power Around the World

Examples of Wind Power Around the World

As of March 2020, 60 percent of Germany’s energy came from renewable sources, the majority of which came from wind turbines. China and the US lead all countries with total wind power usage, clocking in at 221 GW and 96.4 GW respectively. Interestingly, Germany (the third highest wind power producer in the world) sets a far more productive example of using wind power the right way. Meanwhile, China’s ambitious wind farms have been reported to go largely unused.

This concept of wasted alternative energy hits home in the US. While many Americans support alternative energy over traditional fossil fuels, recent polls have also shown that Americans also fear alternative fuels are less efficient and costlier than the current energy infrastructure. Germany is also a great parallel for Western PA as a region in that Germany has traditionally depended on coal economically and for their energy needs.

German infrastructure has been updated over the past 10 years to adopt more alternative energy sources including wind power that made energy production more efficient, cost effective, and beneficial to the economy overall. Other countries including India, Spain, and the UK have all adopted wind power with mostly positive results.

Implications of CMU Using Wind Power in Pittsburgh

Implications of CMU Using Wind Power in Pittsburgh

That background information leads us to the simple question: will CMU’s converting to wind power have a material impact on commercial real estate in the Pittsburgh area? Unfortunately, as with many issues concerning alternative fuels and climate change the answer is less than clear. Here are a few factors and considerations that will likely come into play when it comes to wind power adoption in Pittsburgh.

  1. Will there be sufficient alternative fuel infrastructure? Businesses and other organizations with the intention of switching to an alternative fuel such as wind power is one thing. Having the available resources and/or infrastructure to make that change is another. The US might produce the second most wind power on earth, but it is primarily located in the Great Plains states.
  2. Governmental and public support. Again, converting to wind power is a very significant choice that requires available supply and infrastructure. The US currently gets slightly more than 7% of its energy needs from wind power. While this number is expected to rise, the future remains murky.
  3. Cost viability of wind power in Pittsburgh. The success of the wind power program at CMU may influence public opinion but investment in wind power in the near future will still depend upon return on investment. As CMU’s contract will run through 2024, we expect to see more detailed numbers over the next 4 or so years.

Implications of CMU Using Wind Power in Pittsburgh

Going Forward

Alternative energy sources become less “alternative” by the day. Some countries, including Sweden and Iceland, have committed to cutting fossil fuels from their energy creation entirely. Such a transition is harder to sell in places, like Western PA, where natural gas and coal are still significant economic drivers. There are ideological and political shifts which will determine the future of alternative power sources including wind energy. American institutions like CMU committing to 100% alternative power generation will certainly have an impact on public perception of such programs.

Working Through the Fear and Some Construction News

On March 20 I posted about how difficult the coming weeks were going to be. As expected, the past week brought much worse news than the previous week.

News about the spread of COVID-19 has followed the same pattern as the news that has come from the rest of the world. As states have responded to the outbreak with shelter-in-place orders, the economy has slowed. The huge jump in first-time unemployment claims filed – some 3.28 million new claims – shocked the public but was also not a surprise to economists tracking the pandemic.

The next few week’s news will be bad too. That’s how the fear stage of a crisis works out. It is likely that the news won’t improve much for a while. That doesn’t mean we won’t work through the fear stage. We’ll accept the gravity of the situation, or get used to the bad news, and then work our way through the crisis. Business owners I know started doing that very thing this week and it was a tough week for that reason. Working through this means layoffs and pay cuts. Small business owners hate taking those steps but they are the first steps in recovering. You have to survive to recover. And there will also be good news too. Last week Congress passed a package of measures that will help with some of the economic damage from the outbreak. Federal guidance on isolation were extended and showed the government was taking the outbreak seriously as a public health threat. Even the stock market showed signs that the selloff may have stopped.

One thing that helps with the fear stage is being informed. That has its own set of challenges. You have to work hard at deciphering information from opinion but here’s a tip: avoid any article that has the words “could,” “might,” or “may” in the title. These are attempts at predicting how this crisis will play out. They are most certainly going to be wrong. The forecasts will be both too gloomy and too optimistic, but almost certainly wrong. It’s not that the articles won’t be well-researched or the forecasts unfounded; it’s that the most important variables are so far from being understood that you can’t reliably predict an outcome.

As an example, some very smart people earlier this week predicted that unemployment “could” reach 30 percent as a result of the shutdown. That was the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. That’s 47 million people, or six times the number of people thrown out of work in 2008-2009. Several industry categories would have to go to zero employment for that to come true. More importantly, that kind of forecast leaned on variables about infectious rates and quarantining that aren’t even known in countries that faced the virus a month before the U.S.

Why does this matter? In the fear stage, our minds gravitate towards the negative emotions. We envision the worst that could happen as our likeliest future. Christy Uffelman from Align Leadership shared this Harvard Business Review article on the emotions of fear last week. It’s OK for leaders to embrace the grief that this kind of crisis brings; it’s not OK for leaders to embrace opinions and feelings as facts. Better we should stick with what we know, rather than search for what experts think might happen. Reflecting again on the financial crisis, many of the experts who were forecasting the end of the world in September 2008 were telling us that the panic was overblown in July 2008.

The course of events over the next few months is unclear. Uncertainty helps feed fear too. But some things that are uncertain will have positive outcomes too. There will be resources thrown at developing a vaccine as quickly as possible. It won’t take as long as we fear. Prior to World War II, it took three years to build an Essex class air craft carrier. By 1943, shipbuilders were launching one every 3 ½ months.

We simply don’t know what we don’t know about this pandemic. Stick with resources that inform you, rather than those trying to tell you what will happen or how to feel. Here are a couple of suggestions:

Allegheny County established a rumor control website for public health concerns.

Newmark Knight Frank issued a clear-eyed and objective report on how the pandemic is impacting commercial real estate and construction.

U.S. Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship posted a useful guide to the benefits in the $2 trillion CARES Act for businesses.

There is construction news, even in a shutdown. First, the shutdown of construction may be short-lived. Speaker of the PA House, Mike Turzai, is introducing HB2400 next week to allow all construction projects to move forward with mitigation efforts in place. Industry associations have been working to draft mitigation plans this week to make job sites safe for workers. It is not known if Gov. Wolf will support such a bill. The General Contractors Association of PA – working closely with the MBA – developed a COVDID-19 exposure mitigation plan that will inform PA policy.

In project news, Mascaro Construction is coming out of the ground on the $12 million Steelers Pro Shop addition to Heinz Field. Carl Walker Construction has started work on the $11 million renovation of the UPMC parking garage at 3500 Terrace Street. Omega Building Co. is underway on the $7.9 million kitchen and restroom renovations at the Cork Factory. M*Modal is taking 53,000 square feet in the $20 million expansion/renovation of 7514 Penn Avenue that Franjo Construction is doing. Lone Pine Construction was awarded the Westmoreland County Municipal Authority’s $5.5 million office and garage in New Stanton.