Category: Construction news

Two Housing Markets

Today’s press release about the national new home starts coincided with our release on the second quarter housing activity. First, the good news. In both the regional and national markets, housing starts are up significantly. Census reported that housing starts were at the 760,000 unit pace, a multi-year high. For the first six months of 2012 in Pittsburgh, permits for new homes were up almost 12%, with single family homes up over 8%.

In the case of both national and local volume, however, the activity levels are still roughly half of the supply of new construction needed to meet the demand from new household formation.

U.S. population has been growing by 3 million per year and using normal formation rates that would create demand for 1.5 million new homes. Even if household formation was now being held back by economics a conservative estimate of demand would be 1 million new homes. There’s still a ways to go before the housing industry is adding to the economy.

In Pittsburgh there are a number of economic drivers that are creating jobs faster than even a recession could offset. According to last year’s Census numbers on household formations and jobs, there is a need for about 15,000 more homes than we currently have. New construction should be going at a rate of 5,000 or 6,000 new homes but the current pace is roughly half that.

The big difference between the two markets is that housing prices are much lower nationally now than in 2008 while prices continue to climb in Pittsburgh. The figures from the first six months of 2012 for sales show an increasing trend of appreciation, with prices up between 15% and 20% in April and May. This is a recipe for a new construction boom but there are few lenders anxious or willing to finance spec homes or new developments. A lot shortage looms but in the meantime, construction is lagging demand all over.

The top municipalities for housing permits during the first six months of 2012 in metropolitan Pittsburgh.

Summertime Blues

Even in the midst of a generally good regional economic environment the heightened level of uncertainty about the national/global economy has brought progress on new development and construction to a virtual standstill. After a winter/spring that looked like southwestern PA was on its way back to pre-recession levels of construction the activity has cratered, with public projects (an unusually slow sector in 2012) actually being the most appetizing opportunities on the street of late.

The sweet spot appears to be the $20 million education job.  PJ Dick was awarded the $22 million Avonworth Primary Center project and Nello Construction, the $19.3 million Campbell Hall at West Liberty University.  Two K-12 schools bid within the last month with similar results, both coming in about 25% higher than the published budget. L. S. Fiore Inc. was the low general on the $19.3 million Philipsburg-Osceola Middle School project and Mark Hudson Construction was the low bidder on the $21.2 million Lockley Early Child Learning Center in New Castle.

Still to bid are a couple of nice opportunities at WVU. The $12 million law library project opens on July 24 and the $30 million Advanced Engineering Building is out for pre-qualification of general contractors, with RFQ’s due on August 7.

ALCOSAN took bids on its main pump station upgrade on Preble Avenue, which came in at $22.4 million. Kokosing Construction from Columbus was the low general on that bid. Local contractors Wellington Power and A. J. Demor were the low bidders on the electrical and plumbing portions.

That ALCOSAN job highlights one of the real blues of summertime 2012: the heightened competition. Kokosing has been involved in less than a handful of projects in western PA in the last 20 years, virtually all of which involved repeat clients from Ohio. Like Gilbane, Whiting-Turner, Hunt, Clark, etc. , Kokosing finds its home market too slow to support its operations and has received the news that Pittsburgh is a hot city. This is something of a surprise to the local contracting and design community, whose firms are still fighting to get back to “normal” market conditions.

Owners in the region – and I’m talking about some of the region’s biggest institutional owners – are finding it difficult to resist the siren song of more competition, even though most know that forcing bids lower seldom results in savings by job’s end and often leads to a painful project. That contractors and architects with overhead structures much larger than Pittsburgh companies can be competitive here is mystifying, and in fact most times the truth is that the larger companies are better at making it up as the job progresses (which isn’t good for owners). The phenomenon does not appear to be going away however, so Pittsburgh area firms will have to not only fend off increased competition from local businesses but also those from Ohio, DC and the east coast that are finding their pickings slimmer.

On the private sector front, UPMC has the new $45 million Penguins practice and sports medicine facility in Cranberry out for construction mgt. proposals. They have asked Mascaro, Massaro/Clark, PJ Dick and Rycon/Whiting Turner to respond.  Norfolk Southern has awarded Shiloh Construction a contract for the $14 million Back Shop renovations at their Conway yard.

There will continue to be these sorts of gems bid throughout the remainder of the year but the backlog of projects in the pipeline for 2012 is shrinking. Perhaps a pro-business result in the November election or some easing of economic concerns will trigger an unexpected spike in decision-making from users in the market, but the damage is mostly done for 2012. The pipeline of real estate demand continues to grow fuller but the valve remains closed for summer.

Some News in a Slow Market

While the bid market has boiled down to almost entirely public work in June there are some interesting results and awards in the past week or so.

One of the tightest bids of the year opened last Thursday at West Liberty University. Nello Construction from Canonsburg was low on the Campbell Hall Science Building project by three-tenths of a percent, edging Landau by $63,000 on a $19,287,000 bid. Massaro Corp. finished roughly one percent behind in third.

Contracts were let for mechanical and electrical trades on the $71 million Cardinal Wuerl North Catholic High project in Cranberry Twp. The HVAC and plumbing were awarded to Renick Brothers from Slippery Rock. Lighthouse was selected for the electrical work and Interstate Fire Protection for the sprinklers. The official groundbreaking was held earlier this week and Mascaro Construction is readying the remaining bid packages.

General Electric selected E. E. Austin & Co from Erie as the construction mgr. for its $70 million new plant and locomotive engine facility upgrade in Grove City.

A corporate project of similar size in Akron, OH is attracting a lot of attention from contractors.  Diebold Corp. is planning an $80 million new headquarters and is soliciting construction mgt. proposals ahead of the design. The project has drawn responses from a dozen or more contractors from all over the country. Two local contractors, PJ Dick and Mascaro are among the group vying for the project.

Good Signs in a Mixed Signal Market?

The pending election seems to be more and more of an anchor on the prospects for a more robust construction recovery in 2012. Anecdotes from peers and real estate brokers tell of business owners who need more space sitting on their wallets out of concern for how much different the business and  tax landscape may appear next year. Most businesses are small around here and the owners get to pull a fair amount of profit out of them. Right now the rhetoric from the administration makes owners worry that this might be the best (last) year they can expect to be taxed at lower capital gains rates for a while.

The word from the right is that Obama has put the economy on the verge of another recession. Not very accurate but definitely not very comforting to business. The word from the administration is that the excess (their words) profits made during the past couple years of recovery need to be redistributed to those without. Again, not accurate and discomforting.

Net result: let’s wait and see who’s standing in November. Not much of a business growth strategy but one that is gaining credence it appears.

In the midst of that uncertainty comes a couple of surprising signals. First, the leaders of the local residential realty firms are all crying about not having enough houses to sell for all the people that want them. That seems to be at odds with the accepted wisdom of an extended housing slump. I also spoke with Colliers International managing director Gregg Broujos about the recent ICSC RECON show in Las Vegas. The big retail show was packed. No official word on numbers yet but the estimates are near the 45,000 people that attended in the mid-200’s hey day. Confident retailers are positive historical indicator of construction.

Finally, Oxford Development announced plans for a new office tower today. The press conference may mostly be intended to drum up interest in the concept but Oxford has not historically been a company that made noise without something to back it up. Rumors abound that USSteel is again interested in downtown as a new HQ location or that one of the oil/gas companies could land as a lead tenant. DL Astorino and Mascaro Construction had been working on some concepts for repurposing the building at 441 Smithfield Street to create the office space but the costs and viability may not be sufficient for Oxford  to follow that path, although that scope of work hasn’t been officially ruled out. A new cast of characters would likely be involved in a new mid-rise tower should the developer go that route.

Oxford’s press conference on the 24th revealed Dennis Astorino’s conceptual design and their stated preference to develop new construction at the site rather than renovating the current 441 Smithfield property. One extra advantage of the new construction option is that the new tower would be sited directly opposite the Tower at PNC Plaza on Forbes Ave. that PJ Dick is preparing to start building. The juxtaposition might finally give someone (PNC?) enough motive to buy the Warner Center and do something with it to serve the thousands of workers who will inhabit the new buildings.

Although Oxford’s Steve Guy spoke at the press conference of the direction and schedule being dictated by their success in finding a tenant, Oxford historically hasn’t been a developer that used the press to float speculative ideas. Don’t be surprised if an announcement of a lead tenant follows this summer.

Power Plant Work to Start

After years of wrangling and court cases and fines, the construction to correct the emissions problem at the General Electric-owned Homer City power plant is finally ready to commence.  Kiewit Power Constructors is the engineering/procurement/construction entity overseeing the $700 million addition of two scrubbers to Homer City’s units 1 and 2. Construction is expected to last into 2014 and will require about 600 workers at the peak of the project.

About 30 miles to the south along the Conemaugh River near New Florence,  a similar project is in the works at the Keystone Generating Station. GenOn Energy has narrowed the search for  an EPC contractor to oversee the installation of scrubbers at the plant to Babcock & Wilcox and Interfab. The project is larger than the Homer City plant, approaching $1.2 billion. Construction won’t start until late 2012 or 2013 and should take several years to complete.

Although neither project is within the technical boundaries of the Pittsburgh MSA the labor required for the work will draw from the regional pool of skilled workers. At a time when industrial work is accelerating from the growth of the natural gas industry, another draw on the construction labor force will stretch capacity.

Some Rumblings from the Outlying Markets

Coming into the summer in Pittsburgh the contracting market is not making anyone think it’s 2007 all over again. The projects in the pipeline are moving along and architects are busier but the benefit of that activity will be delayed until later in the year. Perhaps this would be a good time to look two hours north and south.

Erie Insurance Group is in the midst of a $100 million expansion of their headquarters in downtown Erie. They have hired Walsh Construction as CM for the program, which kicks off with a 1000-car cast-in-place concrete garage adjacent to the HQ. According to their preconstruction manager, Chris Burns, the project should bid imminently. CBT Architects are designing the remaining phases that will follow the garage next year.

Another multi-year program that is moving into a more active phase is the expansion and upgrading of the Hamot Medical Center in Erie, with an infusion of capital as a result of their partnership with UPMC. The plan is for roughly $300 million over the next 3-5 years.

Two hours south of town, Morgantown is heating up again. The big project on the boards there is the expansion of the WVU Hospital System, a $250 million program that will include a new south tower by Ruby Hospital. IKM is busy designing the project but construction has been pushed back because of an eleventh hour challenge to WVUH’s certificate of need by rival Monongalia Hospital. WVUH is running at 87% occupancy so the need should be demonstrable but the first phase of the project will probably not start work until late 2012 or early 2013, which will push the big pieces of the project out to 2014.

Coupled with the active projects in WVU’s campus master plan, the work at the institutions in northern West Virginia, along with the growing private sector plans to meet demand from the gas industry are making West Virginia an alternative market for Pittsburgh-area firms.

It’s a Cracker!

OK, now that we’ve had the time to take a deep breath we can look at last Wednesday’s announcement of Shell’s preferred site with a bit more perspective.

First things first. There is no downside to Shell picking the old Horseheads zinc site for their ethane cracker. Regardless of how events unfold from here the Western PA region is better off today than last Tuesday if only for the potential. That said however, it’s important to temper our regional enthusiasm with the knowledge that the decision to proceed with plant construction is still a year or more away and construction itself is at least two years out. The real beneficial impact of the plant – the development of the many downstream industries here – will be years further away.

The acute problem facing the natural gas industry hasn’t changed. Prices are still so low that extraction and processing is a losing proposition right now. It is fortunate for stakeholders in Western PA that the Marcellus Shale formation contains more profitable wet gases like ethane, propane and butane so the drillers will continue in the southwest corner of the state. We’re also lucky to have the oil-laden Utica formation easily accessible in Butler, Beaver and Lawrence counties so that upstream and midstream activities – like fractionation and distribution – will continue to expand.

For the gas industry to fully mature in our region the price will have to increase to its more normal levels, meaning that gas will be at $5-8/MmBtu. The most productive way for that to happen will be for gas to replace fossil fuels, increasing demand while decreasing the dependence on oil as a fuel or coal as an electricity generation source. That will take more investment or energy policy action than is going on right now.

Until something happens to push demand and natural gas prices higher the opening of the Shell cracker facility will remain on the horizon. Of course, it’s better that it’s on the horizon in Beaver Co. than elsewhere.

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UPMC, Highmark Keep Construction Going

Last week’s announcement by the Business Times that Highmark had acquired land by Northway Church in Wexford – the worst kept ‘secret’ in the North Hills – capped a week of developments in the ongoing strong hospital market.  Wexford is but one of the three or four sub-markets that Highmark wants to put outpatient/emergency centers. They are allegedly searching for 25+ acres in Cranberry and are eyeing sites along the 19/79 corridor in the South. The resultant construction projects should be buildings in the $8-15 million range.

UPMC’s big news for the week was the narrowing of the field for the CM contract for the Center for Innovative Science by the Hillman Cancer Center. Four contracting teams or contractors were selected to respond to an RFP for the $294 million project by March 6, with a selection likely by early April. Those invited were Clark/Massaro, Mascaro/Gilbane, PJ Dick/McCarthy and Turner Construction.

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UPMC Center for Innovative Science Moves Ahead

A request for qualifications was issued to a dozen firms last week for the construction management of the new $294 million Center for Innovative Science (CIS)associated with the Hillman Cancer Center. The RFQ is due Thursday with a request for proposals going out to the short list of firms next week. The project is in design development and includes a re-purposing of the 150,000 sq. ft. Ford Motor (AKA Reidbord shirt factory) building at the corner of Baum & Morewood. The exterior is getting a makeover now by Mascaro Construction.  There will also be new construction of a 200,000 research facility on Centre Ave. behind the Ford building site.

Mascaro is one of the firms asked to respond. They are apparently teaming with Gilbane Building Co. Also invited are PJ Dick – who is teaming with Barton-Malow – Clark, dck, Hensel Phelps, Mortenson, Skanska, Turner & Whiting Turner. Other local contractors that could end up as partners with the out-of-town firms include Massaro, Mosites & Rycon.

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Non-residential Construction Jumps 50 Percent in 2011

Non-residential construction jumped 50 percent in 2011. The non-residential construction market was aided by the start of the Allegheny Ludlum Brackenridge Mill and a resilient regional economy in 2011. Because of the ATI project contracting was expected to rise considerably over the volume of 2010. But a variety of positive factors pushed construction higher than expected. 

Non-residential contracting totaled $3.73 billion in 2011, up sharply from $2.5 billion in 2010. It’s worth noting that volume in 2010 was inflated by the USSteel Clairton Works project, which accounted for roughly 20 percent of the annual total. Mainstream commercial activity increased by approximately half billion dollars, with the number of projects increasing significantly as well.

 The activity in the fourth quarter of 2011 can be a real boost going into this year, especially since architects and engineers remained busy going into January. Hospital construction, new office and apartment construction and a whole spectrum of projects related to the expansion of natural gas in the region should push construction to nearly $4 billion in 2012. 

New housing construction remained stuck in low gear. The total number of homes started in 2011 was 2,853, up 2.7 percent from 2010, which the lowest for any year since we began tracking activity in 1994. Permits for detached homes fell 14.1 percent to 1,656, but a 40 percent increase in attached housing – to 1,197 units – offset that decline.

 We were surprised by the decline in traditional single family homes. Our forecast was for a ten percent increase but the hangover from the rush to beat the sprinkler mandate was steeper than expected. Going into 2012, however, we are seeing the first legitimate signs of a recovery in a relative boom in apartment construction. Our forecast is for attached and multi-family to virtually double in 2012, with improved credit conditions and pent-up demand pushing single family detached volume back to the 2,000-unit neighborhood. The forecast is for overall housing permits in 2012 will reach 4,000 units for the first time since 2007.

 The totals listed below represent the number of new housing units for which building permits were issued, excluding mobile homes and elderly care complexes.  The top areas were: 

Municipality

#SFD

#SFA

Total

Single-Family Detached      
Pittsburgh

122

377

499

PetersTownship

84

0

84

AdamsTownship

77

62

139

SouthFayetteTownship

71

35

106

CranberryTownship

66

123

189

PineTownship

62

19

81

Jefferson Hills

61

3

64

NorthHuntingdonTownship

56

4

60

MoonTownship

47

9

56

NorthFayetteTownship

42

50

92

       
Single-Family Attached      
Pittsburgh

122

377

499

CranberryTownship

66

123

189

CollierTownship

15

65

80

AdamsTownship

77

62

139

Plum

36

62

98

       
Total Pittsburgh MSA 2011

1,656

1,197

2,853

Total Pittsburgh MSA 2010

1,927

851

2,778

% Change

-14.1%

40.7%

2.7%

       
By County

SFD

SFA

Total

Allegheny

778

784

1562

Beaver

124

35

159

Butler

229

231

460

Fayette

83

6

89

Washington

227

103

330

Westmoreland

215

35

250