For the majority of Americans, buying a home requires a mortgage loan. There are many factors that impact a person’s ability to purchase a home, but a mortgage will always be one of the most significant factors in determining whether a house is affordable or not. Given the impact they have on your monthly payments, mortgage rates are also relevant.
When mortgage rates are higher, less mortgage applications tend to be filed. What has been happening as of late, is a fluctuation of mortgage rates that has made home purchases difficult to predict. The Mortgage Bankers Association keeps track of changing mortgage rates, and publishes the numbers. In the last month, the country has seen mortgage rates plunge, and then recover, and then go back down again. The market is volatile right now because of the US’s relationship with China, and home buyers are making sure to only act when rates are low.
Refinancing of homes is also impacted by mortgage rates. Generally homeowners will refinance their mortgages for the purposes of lowering their monthly payments. Due to this, applications for refinancing loans are extremely sensitive to changing mortgage rates. Mike Fratantoni, the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association, commented on interest rates:
Interest rates continue to be volatile, with Brexit votes and ongoing trade negotiations swinging rates higher or lower on any given day…Borrowers with larger loans are the most sensitive to rate changes, and with rates climbing higher last week, the average size of a refinance loan application fell to its lowest level this year.
Home Sales Projections
Mortgage applications to purchase a home have certainly been falling compared to weeks prior, but the good news is that the numbers are still better than a year prior. This is good news for the market. Additionally, there is hope that the market could be improving in the near future. Joel Kan, the Mortgage Bankers Associations’ Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting, had his own comments on the state of mortgage rates.
U.S. Treasury yields trended downward over the course of last week, as the Federal Reserve meeting highlighted the elevated uncertainty in the economic outlook. However, despite falling yields, mortgage rates ticked up again and have risen 20 basis points over the past two weeks…The increase in rates led to fewer refinances, and activity has now dropped 17% over the last two weeks…The recent data on increased existing-home sales and new residential construction points to the underlying strength in the purchase market this fall.
Kan believes that buyer demand was stronger than expected. If this trend continues, prices on homes will be higher, and the supply of homes for sale will lead to a stronger housing market. That would, of course, be the preferred outcome, however sales are not increasing as much as they should be given the lower mortgage rates as compared to those from one year ago. Home sales should be increasing, but due to home prices being too high, any savings made through lower mortgage rates is being negated.
The National Association of Realtors reported the increase in September’s home prices, and experts point to a lack of supply for the unexpected falls in sales. Diana Olick, a real estate correspondent with CNBC explained:
The problem is low supply combined with high prices; prices jumped nearly 6% annually, according to the National Association of Realtors, the biggest gain since January 2018. Prices are being juiced in part by lower mortgage rates. Lower rates help with affordability, but they also give buyers more purchasing power, which in turn causes prices to rise.
Matthew Speakman, a Chief Economist at Zillow, agreed with Diana, and doubled down:
Much of the sales boost this summer can be chalked up to interest rates dragging along the bottom this year, which enticed more would-be buyers into the market…Now, sales are coming back to earth, largely because of an ongoing shortage of inventory. There simply are not enough lower-priced homes to keep the market humming. While builders are putting up more homes, their pace is not keeping up with what buyers demand.
Mortgage rates have fluctuated quite a bit, and these rates have negatively impacted mortgage applications, refinancing, and home sales. The fluctuation can be attributed to many things, but the fact remains that at the moment, the housing market has seen dips in sales. When the mortgage rates are high, potential homebuyers don’t buy, and homeowners don’t refinance. When mortgage rates are low, demand ends up driving prices up, which keeps people from purchasing. The foreign influences on mortgage rates are also a factor in the fluctuation.
Going forward, the market needs to see an increase in construction, and the best way for this to take place is through competition. With new players breaking in to the industry, the burden of additional home development won’t be placed on the builders that are currently holding back on the number of production projects they take on.