This is more than a bit wonky. As the U.S. economy hits a new record for economic expansion, the age of the business cycle is making people worry about the next recession. That’s not a bad thing. The longer expansion continues, the closer we are to the next recession. One of the indicators that is getting more airplay these days is the inverted yield curve. I don’t blame you if you can’t get too motivated to get to know this indicator but here’s the thing: an inverted yield curve has preceded the last three recessions and seven of the last eight.

We’re going to devote an article to the yield curve in the July/August BreakingGround but here’s the short-hand version until then.

The yield curve describes the difference between the interest rate on short-term and long-term government loans (or bonds). The long-term bonds should have higher rates because there’s a greater risk of something (like inflation) eating at the money you get repaid as time goes on. When the long-term rates are lower than short-term rates, the yield curve is negative or inverted. There’s a whole technical explanation in BreakingGround (and on the Internet) but the short version is that the yield curve inverts when lots of people are nervous about the economy and invest in long-term bonds with lower rates. The longer this situation lasts (see the red line below the white one below), the more likely that a recession will occur within 6 months to 2 years. It also makes it more likely that the Federal Reserve Bank will cut rates in July. That will make the economy happy, at least for a while.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PBX reports that March Westin has early bid packages out to bid on the $60 million Hodges Hall renovation at WVU.  The PBX also reports that Al. Neyer will start construction late summer on the $39 million first phase of its new office building at 21st & Smallman.Dick Building Co. was awarded the contract for the $2.7 million TI for Industrious at Liberty Centre. A. Martini & Co. will be doing $1.8 million renovations to PPG Wintergarden’s event space for Bottle Management (the company that developed City Works restaurant). Jendoco Construction has started on the new $5 million exhibit and office for Contemporary Craft in Lawrenceville. Shannon Construction was awarded the contract for the shell and core renovations at Station Square.