One of the best programs of the year is the Urban Land Institute’s “Emerging Trends in Real Estate.” The 2017 version of this was held this morning at the Rivers Club. There was a great panel, with Maureen McAvey from McAvey consulting in Washington DC as the keynote speaker. Her presentation centered on the theme that commercial real estate was in a good place but probably not getting much better for this cycle. In fact, she predicted that the good run probably had another 12-18 months to go before a cyclical slowdown. She called it the “kinder, gentler real estate cycle,” which is more good news. ULI makes the “Emerging Trends” document available at their site.

The rest of the program focused on the Pittsburgh market and the changes occurring. I found the best points were made by Claire Hosteny, one of the partners in East End Development Partners (which brought us the Ace Hotel). Claire spoke about the residential conditions and emphasized that Pittsburgh was beginning to push up against the boundaries of our affordability limits, emphasizing that affordability was one of the region’s biggest selling points. She really hit the mark when pointing out that the biggest threat to continued growth of city living was the inadequate public education system. She urged the crowd to consider investment in the Pittsburgh Public Schools or charter schools as a top priority.

One of the drivers of Pittsburgh’s resurgence has been the 25-35 year-olds returning to the city because of great jobs. Reluctant (or unable) to buy, this group of Pittsburghers have been paying the rents that we middle-agers think are outrageous and driving the apartment market. As this age group does marry and reproduce, the same factor will drive where they live as drives all American home buyers: where are the schools we want? If the city schools don’t pass muster for the Millennials, they will head to the suburbs just like their parents. There is a home buying/building boom in the near future. How good Pittsburgh Public Schools are perceived to be will determine if that boom includes Pittsburgh proper.

A couple of project follow-ups: CCAC put a design RFP out for its 150-bed student housing project at the Boyce campus. The RFP included (sort of) the option to add development and finance to the package. Pitt opened bids last week on its Barco Law Library project. Rycon was low at $3,049,000. TEDCO was second at $3.1 million but could become the low bidder if Pitt were to take 3 or  more of the alternates. Massaro CM Services will be releasing the $5 million North Allegheny Intermediate School renovations on Dec. 12 with bids due on Jan. 11.