On Friday, the Commerce Dept. released its first estimate on gross domestic product for the first quarter on 2018. The 2.3% increase was a pleasant surprise, coming on the heels of an upward final revision about the US for the 4th quarter to 2.9%. Recent history has shown weaker first quarters, especially following strong year-end finishes. The first quarter GDP gains came from consumer and business spending growth, although inflation had more of an influence in the growth than in many years. The more troubling data from the estimate was the fact that both consumer and business spending was beginning to trend lower. It remains to be seen whether the additional data gathered for the 2nd and final estimates reinforces that slowing trend in the next two months.

The General Contractors Association of Pennsylvania (GCAP) has published a transcript of its interviews with Gov. Wolf and all three leading GOP candidates for governor. GCAP asked each of the four about their proposed policies that will affect construction. Some of them sort of answered. Read the transcript here.

Project news is light. Pitt is seeking proposals for construction management at risk services for its $100 million expansion of Scaife Hall from PJ Dick, Gilbane, Mascaro, Skanska, Rycon, Massaro, Turner and Whiting-Turner. PJ Dick was selected as general contractor for Providence Point’s $40 million expansion in Scott Township. Cavcon Construction is about to break ground on $3.5 million new Youth & Family Center and Admissions buildings at the Adelphoi Village in Latrobe. NRP Group will be building the Pittsburgh Flats apartments at 23rd and Wharton Streets that was originally proposed by the Edwards Communities. NRP will build 330 units later this year.

Bureau of Labor Statistics released information on February’s producer price index (PPI), which showed construction outpacing the overall inflation rate by a considerable amount. Year-over-year (y/y) the PPI for all finished products was up 2.8%. For construction the PPI increase for final demand rose 3.5%.

The AGC’s Ken Simonson noted spikes (note: no declines) in a number of categories. “Materials important to construction that had notable one- or 12-month price changes include diesel fuel, down 2.0% in February but up 38% y/y; lumber and plywood, up 4.4% for the month and 13% y/y; aluminum mill shapes, 2.9% and 12%, respectively; copper and brass mill shapes, -0.9% and 10%; gypsum products, 7.2% and 8.0%; and steel mill products, 2.3% and 4.8%. Among services important to construction, the PPI for truck transportation of freight rose 0.6% for the month and 5.6% y/y.”

In local construction news, CMU’s $45 million Health & Wellness Center – a renovation of Skibo Hall – has gone out for RFP to Jendoco, Mascaro, Mosites, PJ Dick, and Rycon. Construction of a temporary helipad is getting underway as the first phase of the $21 million emergency department renovation. MBM Contracting is the project’s CM. Stantec is the architect. And nearly 20 years of trying, word is that the $40 million Shannon Transit Village is moving forward. The 152-unit apartment with ground floor retail and a 375-car garage is being developed by Jim Aiello (JRA Development) and built by Mascaro Construction. A schedule for construction is not set, however.

This morning’s Bureau of Labor Statistics report on February’s job creation blew the doors off the forecast. Employers created 313,000 jobs in February, at least 100,000 more than expected. It’s a reflection of small business confidence in the economy and a reaction to the lower business taxes. Here in Pittsburgh, construction keeps getting a boost from the rapid growth in tech jobs.

Rycon Construction was awarded the $7.9 million fit-out for Argo AI, one of Uber’s competitors in the autonomous vehicle game, which is going into 3 Crossings. Dick Building Co. got a contract for about $1 million in renovations for a company called Robotany at the M. Berger Industrial Park in South Side. Robotany grows greens hydroponically and is expanding to put robotics to work planting, feeding and harvesting. Turner is reported to have the $120 million Pitt/UPMC Immune Transplant and Therapy Center, the conversion of the former Ford Building in Shadyside.

In more conventional construction news, Franjo Construction was awarded the $7 million A & L Motors BMW dealership in Monroeville. A permit was issued in McCandless to A. Martini & Co. for a $32 million McCandless Senior Living, being developed by CA Ventures at McCandless Crossing. Burns & Scalo Real Estate has its 150,000 sq. ft. , $34 million Riviera Office Building out to subcontractors for bid. And the $700 million UPMC Heart and Transplant Hospital at Presbyterian is going out for CM proposals (along with the UPMC Hillman Cancer Hospital) to four teams: Clark Construction/Dick Building Co., Massaro/AECOM, PJ Dick/Whiting Turner and Rycon/Skanska.

Correction note:

In the Spring edition of DevelopingPittsburgh, there was an error in the feature article, p. 14. The quote from Mike Coonley should read, “When we have the opportunity we will still put our hat in the ring. We don’t have a lot of available buildings or but we do have lots of sites.” Armstrong County EDC has 20- and 12-acre pads along with several other smaller lots at the 925-acre Northpointe business park. West Hills Industrial Park, at the intersection of SR28 and 422, has 185 acres with multiple sites available. 

Bid boards have gotten very full very quickly for Pittsburgh contractors. Much of the work on the streets is small private stuff but there are a few meaty projects, with the prospects of some big projects (UPMC Presbyterian and Shadyside Towers, CMU Skibo Hall, $75 million Altoona High) coming out within the next month or so. Among the projects being bid, the $43 million City’s Edge Apartments in the Lower Hill have gone out for competitive GMP proposals to PJ Dick, Rycon, Mosites.

The Murdoch Building, a 95,000 square foot office and retail building being built by Mascaro, broke ground this month. Fairchance Construction is about to start work on a 138,000 square foot expansion of COE Distributing at the Franklin Commercial Park in Fayette County, being developed by J D & D Enterprises. Dick Building Co. has started work on a new 42,000 square foot Rahal Land Rover/Jaguar dealership in North Strabane Twp. outside Washington PA.

In economic news, the Census Bureau reported that GDP growth was only 2.6% in the fourth quarter, a mild disappointment compared to expectations. For perspective, however, that pace of growth (which was the annual rate too) is an improvement over 2016 and about what could be realistically expected given the shortage of workers. It’s also worth noting that this is the first of three estimates. By the time the final estimate is reached in 2 months, the final figure may hit the 3% that economists expected.

Most years, the Labor Day weekend brings the realization that the building year is starting to wind down and there follows a flurry of activity. This year that realization either came early or else just the flurry. From amongst the RFP’s for CM services that have been bouncing around, Pitt selected PJ Dick to build its $26.5 million life sciences building at UP-Greensburg campus. PJ was also successful on the $16 million Vincentian Sisters’ independent living facility in McCandless. In Erie, AHN awarded a contract to Massaro Corp. for a fast-track renovation to its 40,000 square foot birthing suites.

This morning, the Census Bureau released two of its monthly economic indicators, both of which showed the economy to be helathy and steady. Construction spending in July hit $1.2 trillion, an increase of 1.8 percent over July 2016. Government data on employment growth was announced this morning also. Non-farm payrolls grew by 156,000 jobs in August. That was below the expected 170,000 jobs forecasted by economists but still a healthy increase given the tight labor supply. Since January 2017, job creation has averaged 177,000 monthly. That’s a sign of employer health and optimism, especially in light of how late in the business cycle the U.S. economy is.

Friday’s report on first quarter GDP was well below economist’s forecasts but hardly a surprise or disappointment (not sure how those two things can be true but…). When you dig into the details you see that without construction spending, the economy would have actually contracted in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2016. The overall GDP growth number was 0.7 percent but big gains in residential construction (0.5 points) and non-residential investment (1.1 points) added 1.6 points to the growth. The rest of the economy dragged GDP down 0.9 points. Within the non-residential investment number, which includes all business investment, spending on non-residential construction was up 22.1 percent. That means that without construction, the non-residential investment number would have been flat or worse.

Today’s announcement on March construction showed that the first quarter of 2017 was up 4.9 percent over the first quarter of 2016. The $1.218 trillion in spending is the highest on record. The trends represented in the number were consistent with past months. Commercial construction was up 12.7 percent. Public construction was down 6.5 percent.

One of the concepts that the Federal Reserve’s FOMC dicussed in its March meeting was that of “soft data” compared to “hard data” in assessing the economy. With inflation rising again and the labor markets tight, the Fed will raise rates slightly at least three time this year, but the Committee made interesting observations about the actual state of the economy versus the perception.

Soft data is the more frequently-updated economic information that is the result of surveys, like consumer and business confidence or business hiring plans. The surveys of this kind – like the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index – have soared since the election on the expectation that a Trump Administration would lower taxes and regulatory burdens. Thus far, the administration has struggled but consumers and business owners have reflected little of this in their responses.

At the same time, hard data – like government employment or GDP estimates – is showing that the economy is performing pretty much like it has since the Obama Administration and Congress figured out how to play nicely after the 2013 government shutdown debacle. A look at the figure below shows how this spread between data and emotion looks.

Bidding/contracting news is limited. One K-12 project of note is out to bid, the $14 million Todd Lane Elementary School addition/renovation in Center Valley School District. Massaro has the $2.6 million Johnstown Flood Museum project out to bid, due April 26. Mistick Construction is taking bids on the $30 million Eighth & Penn apartments and Elford Inc. has started construction on the $40 million, 274-unit Village at Cranberry Woods apartments. In Erie, E. E. Austin has been selected as CM for the $110 million Allegheny Health Network renovation of St. Vincent Hospital.