Category: Regional Economy

Infrastructure Relief

After a disappointing Monday night defeat, proponents of the proposed $2.3 billion House transportation funding bill persuaded eight representatives to change ‘no’ votes to ‘yes’ on Tuesday.

The bill passed by a 104-95 margin that included strange bedfellows because of the amendment that accompanied the legislation which raised the minimum project cost for prevailing wage rates to $100,000. That amendment sent pro-labor Democrats to the Republican side of the aisle while moderate Republicans in southeastern PA stood with Dems to support the funding injection to Philadelphia’s troubled SEPTA mass transit system.

It appears that Monday’s vote allowed conservatives the political cover they needed from ‘no tax increase’ pledges. One House leader was quoted as saying that the switched votes came from Reps. who thought that the measure would pass without their votes but were persuaded otherwise on Wednesday.

The bill went back to the Senate Wednesday – where the prevailing wage modification may be struck down – before coming back to the House for a final approval later in the week. Gov. Corbett and House leaders believe the new-found majority in the House will hold.

In project news, DGS is requesting CM-Agency proposals for the University of Pittsburgh’s $10 million Hillman Library renovation. No word as yet on which firm was successful in the Cathedral of Learning Elevator Modernization project. Crown Castle International should be putting out to bid a $20 million expansion and renovation to their headquarters in Southpointe. Crown is acquiring the former Mylan HQ and will renovate that building and add a connection between the Mylan building and their existing office. Astorino is doing the design. Burns & Scalo Real Estate Services is the owner’s rep for Crown Castle.

Cracker Speculation

Today’s Pittsburgh Business Times had the front page dedicated to a story suggesting that the pipeline infrastructure investment underway was making the cracker plant in western PA unnecessary. Last weekend the Wall Street Journal published a small story suggesting the same thing (coincidence PBT?). Expect a bunch of piling on from other local and business media.

The essence of both stories is that so much pipeline capacity is being built that it makes more sense to just pipe the ethane to the Gulf to the existing cracker infrastructure. It’s important to remember that no sources with direct knowledge are quoted or anonymously cited and the use of the word “may” (as in may happen) is rampant in the writing.

I can’t argue the logic of the articles nor do I possess the experience in the petrochemical industry to comment on the feasibility. I do, however, talk to people involved with the project behind the scenes and a few things are worth noting:

1) The infrastructure being referenced was needed for the output that is coming, regardless of where the ethane goes. Moreover, the infrastructure isn’t going to the Gulf; it’s connecting to the existing infrastructure outside the region that goes to the Gulf, meaning it can easily serve the petrochemical industry in PA.

2) Engineering for the project is going on as we speak. While no contracts for EPC for the plant or the decommissioning of the Horseheads plant have been announced, preliminary pricing and sourcing is going on. Those involved say that the activity has accelerated in recent months rather than slowed.

3) The secondary pipeline infrastructure that is being built at the same time seems to be telling a different story. It’s pointing to Monaca. Tony Rosenberger from Chapman Properties was flying over a Washington Co. site recently and was stunned to see the amount of green pipe being laid out (a similar story is taking place in Beaver Co.), all going to the same spot on the Ohio River.

Shell may indeed be delaying the decision because they see less justification for the $2 billion investment. Remember that the reason that the cracker was proposed here in the first place was not just because the gas was here but more importantly because the consumers of the products made downstream were within 500 miles of here. There’s a cost associated with sending ethane 1,500 miles southwest and then shipping 60% of what is made with the ethylene that is cracked back to this region.

My bet is still for a thumbs up from Shell and sooner rather than later.

Highway Bill Deja Vu

House Republican Leader Mike Turzai announced yesterday that he would put a highway funding bill up to a vote next week to help Gov. Corbett fulfill his pledge to work on the state’s aging infrastructure. Turzai is not in favor of Senate Bill 1, which failed to get House action in June, but he indicated that what he would put forward for a vote would be in the neighborhood of the $2.5 billion the Senate approved.

The highway and transit improvements that such a bill would cover will still actually be inadequate to the maintenance and repairs needed but $2.5 billion will help keep the amazing economic progress that has been achieved in Western PA from eroding. Such an infusion will also allow highway contractors a chance to keep employment levels growing.

As an example of the current conditions, only one significant PennDOT project is out to bid in the western half of the state at the moment, the $15-20 million Route 28 widening at the I-579 interchange. September-October is typically a time when a number of major projects are lined up for winter starts.

The $17 million WVU baseball stadium has been short-listed. Design/build proposals will come from Astorino, PJ Dick, Gilbane and Mascaro.

In the pipeline, engineering/construction firm Burns & McDonnell was in the region during the past couple weeks pre-prequalifying contractors for the construction of a natural gas processing plant for Williams that will be located in southwestern Mercer County. The project is reported to be somewhat smaller than the Houston plant but should still be in the hundreds of millions in construction eventually. PPG Industries announced yesterday that it will take 120,000 sq. ft. in the empty Building 4 on Westinghouse’s campus in Cranberry Woods to consolidate the headquarters of its coatings business. The company has also been planning an expansion of its research facilities in Harmar, a project rumored to be in excess of $15 million.

Housing Market Booms in Second Quarter

For many months now the shortage of houses for sale has been pushing home prices up at double-digit rates. That’s a good thing for homeowners but a bad thing for home buyers. Such conditions usually presage a boom in new construction, since the lack of inventory makes buyers look to other alternatives. For a number of reasons – little lot inventory, limited spec house financing, nervous builders, etc. – the new construction has not taken off. That seems to have changed in quarter two.

Housing starts for the first six months saw permits for more than 2,800 new units. That’s an 85% growth pace and a volume that hasn’t been seen since 2007. The trend suggests that 5,000 units will start by year’s end. Multi-family starts are up almost 159% over 2012. Single family starts are on pace to exceed 2,600 units, up 36% through June 30.

Total   Pittsburgh MSA 2012:2 919 596 1,515
Total   Pittsburgh MSA 2013:2 1,252 1,543 2,795
% Change 36.2% 158.9% 84.5%

Non-residential contracting reached $1 billion in the second quarter, bringing the year-to-date contracting totals to more than $1.4 billion. The pace of activity has quickened considerably as summer began and the forecast for the full year is for more than $3 billion total starts.

Indiana Regional Medical Center short-listed Alexander Building Systems, A. Martini & Co., Quandel and Turner for its $30 million addition. Massaro Corp. was selected as the general for the $4.5 million Armstrong Hospital emergency room.

It’s Not That Bad

I got several calls from local news outlets within the last 10 days following McGraw-Hill’s press release showing $38 million in new construction contracts in February, a huge drop from last year’s $70 million or some such thing. Like many in the industry I have been puzzled at the lack of construction activity in light of our region’s economic vitality and the activity level of architects and engineers, however this data seemed completely shocking. It turns out there is a good reason: it’s not remotely accurate.

The City of Pittsburgh’s permits alone totaled $40 million plus for non-residential construction in February and most of the region’s construction takes place outside the city. Even with less than half the data entered into the Tall Timber database the February totals exceed $100 million. In fact, the YTD totals at the end of the 1st quarter probably won’t be far off the $440 million during that period in 2012 and may be a bit higher.

A lot of the design activity from summer/fall 2012 is getting into the pipeline now. Their is still a sweet spot for contractors who can compete effectively for 30,000-40,000 sq. ft. buildings, which are still popping up in the natural gas supply chain. In the Mon Valley several projects like that are out or coming out to bid shortly, including new buildings for Waukesha Pierce, Duquesne Light and Gardner Denver. A new 35,000 sq. ft. facility for Scientific Drilling is out to bid to Dynamic, Nello, New Belle & TBI.

Massaro Corp. Construction Management group has the $35 million Henderson Health & Human Development Building bid package #3 out due May 1 and a $63 million expansion and renovation project for the Ohio Facilities Construction Commission that is part of the consolidation of the Northcoast Behavioral Healthcare Campus between Cleveland and Youngstown, due on May 2.

Construction is still slower than it should be and will be for as long as their is uncertainty about healthcare reform or interest rates or Federal spending. 2013 will not be the year of the turnaround but it’s also not going to be the year the bottom dropped out.

Have a Coke (Battery) or Two

Just when you thought that the steel industry was in deep freeze again comes word of a thaw. The global recession has put a big dent in the business but there is apparently some boost in demand for coke or the industry sees it as a good time to capitalize its coke production assets.

Arcelormittal is beginning the contracting for a $50 million re-opening and upgrade of the former Koppers coke plant in Monessen. Graycor is rumored to have been awarded the quencher with contracts for the remaining work pending.

USSteel is reportedly ready to commit the resources needed to complete the modernization/replacement of the Battery D at the Clairton works. The company completed the construction of the $500 million Battery C last year. No word on if an EPC firm has been contracted or when construction might start.

In the public construction arena, the lingering influence of the Rendell administration’s east-oriented capital programs is still being felt in the bidding market. The distribution of professional service RFP’s has been more balanced since Gov. Corbett took office but the lag time for design and the more restricted flow of projects in the pipeline means that what is out to bid now reflects the bias to the east. A check of the current bidding opportunities at DGS shows that the project listed that is furthest west is a roof replacement in the Mechanicsburg area.

It’s fortunate then that there is one large public construction project out to bid now in western PA, the $50 million new combined junior/senior high school for Armstrong Co. School District. The history of this project is not very encouraging, however, since a similar project has been on the boards of several architects since the late 1970’s. Uncertainty about whether there will be enough support from citizens to back the board’s decision to proceed doesn’t seem to be dampening interest. As of this morning 13 contractors were reported pursuing the estimated $25 million general package.

A project that should be moving ahead later this spring is the 1,000 Luna parking garage that is the next piece in the UPMC Shadyside Hospital master plan. The garage should be somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 million and will help ease parking and congestion at the hospital. The garage was previously part of the Center for Innovative Science project that was awarded to Turner Construction but a select group of contractors will be asked to bid instead.

Looking at the broader picture a few weeks into 2013, there is continued improving economic news and growing anecdotal evidence that the pipeline of work is building. Hiring has picked up at engineering and architectural firms, which have been responding to noticeably more RFP’s since Oct/Nov of last year. Very little suggests that a surge is set to occur that will help build contractor backlogs during the next 90 days or so but unless macroeconomic factors push owners/developers to put projects on hold in the spring, the second half of 2013 should see a significant increase in construction.

Pittsburgh Housing Market Stays Consistent

There is one significant positive hanging over the U.S. economy that could help un-stick the seemingly endless no-growth cycle that has gripped business: the housing market recovery. Unlike the overall U.S. market, the housing market in Pittsburgh does not have to bounce back from falling prices and is showing remarkable consistency across a number of metrics.

For more than six months the prices of houses sold and the number of homes sold have remained solidly up more than 10% year-over-year. That’s an unusual level of consistent growth, especially since the sales took place in periods of both higher and lower seasonal activity.

The third quarter also showed a consistent trend in the year-over-year growth in new construction. Through nine months there were a total of 2,396 new dwelling units started compared to 2,155 during the same period in 2011, an increase of 11.2%. The increased activity was constant whether the construction was traditional detached single-family homes and attached or multi-family units, with each cohort up between 10-12%. Permits were issued for 1,393 units of detached dwellings compared to 1,264 in 2011 and for 1,003 attached units this year compared to 891 last year.  A breakout of the top areas for construction is below.

While there is growing evidence that financing conditions are normalizing so that buyers can buy, the dwindling supply of lots will keep a broader housing recovery from spreading into 2013, although the construction of multi-family apartments will boom for at least the next 18 months.

If the developers stick to their plans there will be another 1,000 units started in large multi-family projects before the year ends in Green Tree and Southpointe. This is good news but the volume will skew the perception of the total market in Pittsburgh if that occurs. Should the activity unfold in that manner the total housing starts for 2012 will approach or exceed 4,000 units, a level not seen since 2006. On one hand the volume reflects the pent-up demand for housing in the region, but to more accurately judge that a true housing recovery is underway you should focus on the single-family detached market.

Apartments, More Apartments & WalMart

The hottest property type in the market (aside from natural gas projects) remains multi-family. Five years after the housing crisis started it remains more difficult to buy a house than normal conditions, yet the need for housing increases more each year. With big financing chasing apartment projects all over the country the conditions are right for an apartment boom – and later an apartment glut of course. For 2012 it appears the number of multi-family units started will be up over 25% and here in Pittsburgh there is a wave of apartments also breaking.

Last week’s announcement by Massaro and Dawson Co. of a 320-unit apartment at the South Hills Village transit station marked yet another of a string of similar projects. With a day or so, NRP Group from Cleveland was identified as the developer interested in the Warrendale Point site for another 300-plus units. That brings the number of units in the pipeline for 2013-2014 – of projects over 100 units – to over 3,500, of which fewer than 400 have started.

Another announcement that helped the market was that Morgan Management was finalizing negotiations to acquire the apartments that Nationwide Insurance developed through Continental Communities almost 15 years ago. Morgan had expressed interest in having 2,000 or more units in Pittsburgh and was looking at a number of new construction sites. This aquisition may change that strategy and keep the market from getting saturated quite so fast, but an overbuilt apartment market still looks likely by 2015. With home ownership getting easier to accomplish, a tipping point looms with higher rents and lower interest rates that will require only more reasonable lending conditions to trigger. Look for that spark to occur next year, maybe as quickly as the spring buying season.

The contracting market remains unspectacular now. After a minor post-Labor Day surge, bidding has slowed again. Two projects of interest are out. The first is the $15 million Rosenbaum Family House job down at WVUH, a project that has to happen to allow the $250 million Ruby Hospital expansion to occur. WVUH has invited Landau, MBM, G. A. Brown and Volpatt to bid on Oct. 4.

The other interesting job is a new WalMart at the Northern Lights Shopping Center site in Economy on Route 65. With retail still struggling in the U. S. , Pittsburgh remains a countercyclical market, with low vacancy rates and new construction. WalMart scaled back plans for new stores again this year but after opening one in North Huntingdon earlier, they have moved ahead with another in the area. The Economy project bids on Oct. 10 with Adena, dck, Carlson, Fiore, L. Keeley, Pike and Tri-C invited.

The Last Week of Summer

With the last die hard school districts opening this week it finally feels like summer’s done and for 2012 good riddance. At least from a business standpoint. Uncertainty made cowards of a lot of business people and projects scheduled to move just sat and waited. Now it appears that owners are feeling a bit better or have realized there’s no advantage to waiting to see who’s president next year because there has been an uptick in activity on the real estate front.

One place that’s definitely jumping is Southpointe. Rycon is working on a 150,000 sq ft spec building called the J. Barry Center and the developer – Horizon Properties – is re-bidding its 130,000 sq ft Town Center retails buildings on the 18th. Bear Construction has started on the 20,000 sq ft Fletcher Industries building. Burns & Scalo Real Estate has upped the size of their plans for 2 office buildings from 125,000 sq ft each to a total of 416,000 sq ft. An announcement about tenants may come soon.

Marshall University has its $50 million Weisberg Center out to bid due October 3. In PA the biggest public job bidding now is the $5 million PA Lumber Museum project in Galeton. In the private sector, USAA has the tenant space for Williams Midstream out to bid to Landau, Martini, Rycon, Harvey-Clay & James Construction. That’s a 75,000 space in Park Place Corp. Center near the airport. Following up some recent bids, Busse was awarded a $2 million renovation at the Doubletree in Green Tree. TEDCO is working on the Janney Montgomery Scott space – 22,000 sq ft in One PPG Place.

There are lots of big space users looking right now. With an economy that is growing while the national economy is fizzling, Pittsburgh should be a good place for construction in 2013, although the same could have been said about 2012.

Housing Continues to Rebound

Three metrics that reflect the health of the housing market continue to be increasingly positive in metropolitan Pittsburgh over the past six months.  The volume and average price of home sales, as well as the amount of new construction are all trending towards a robust recovery in home construction through July.

Both RealStats and West Penn Multi-List reported another month of double digit increases in home sales, the six month of double digit growth, which pretty well confirms a trend of accelerated home sales. Prices for homes also jumped by a double digit rate again. This data supports the anecdotal evidence of growing multiple-offer sales on existing homes. Because of lingering mortgage qualification problems, however, the shortage of homes to sell (which is what is driving the pricing action) isn’t triggering a new construction boom. Even though new construction could be a relief valve for the supply, the financing conditions aren’t allowing demand to surge like it should after being pent up for so long. Lenders are indicating that conditions are starting to change but they also warn that some of their discretion has been blunted by the federal regulations that followed the mortgage crisis.

Even with a tougher borrowing climate dampening demand, new construction is still up.  New construction in July was up 27%, with new single-family detached units up 70.4% over July 2011. For the first half of 2012, the housing market in metro Pittsburgh was up 12% year-over-year, so July’s results are indicating an acceleration of the trend. More than any year since 2007, the fall selling season will be an important indicator of the 2013 market.

Aside from the short term trends, there are a few factors that should be followed to understand how a housing recovery will unfold. One significant limiting factor will continue to be financing. As banks have firmed up balance sheets and become more competitive in lending, the Fed and Congress have added or strengthened regulation. This will dampen demand to some degree for several years. Also hindering a recovery is a shortage of lots. Several thousand buildable lots exist in the metropolitan area but the inventory could be wiped out with one ‘normal’ year of 5,000 new construction units. The dynamics of residential development aren’t making that shortage go away any time soon either.

On the plus side is the natural gas industry’s coming demand. In 2012 it’s impossible to judge how many permanent jobs and homes will result from the maturation of the industry and its downstream industries, but there are indications that the heavy hitters in the business are afraid of a housing shortage as early as 2015. As part of their due diligence for a decision to build an ethane cracker, Shell is studying the housing options in and around Monaca. There are reports that Shell is investigating the availability of rental housing and viability of new rental construction so that they can budget the housing of construction workers into their plans. At least one option being pursued is the offer of a flat – but generous – rental rate per person for an extended lease. If that option is indeed true and viable it could spur thousands of units in new construction. Remember that Shell estimates it will take 10,000 workers to build the plant and its related facilities.